Milan Jaros: You once said that Ukraine’s victory over Russia would open the region and the world to democracy and be a source of hope for all of us. What does this hope look like today?
Timothy Snyder: The Ukrainians did not fare as badly in the counteroffensive as is portrayed: they inflicted many more casualties on the Russians than they suffered and even managed to recapture some of the territory that the Kremlin had occupied in early 2022. However, this does not count It does not mean victory: if this happened, they must reconquer the occupied south and Crimea. Economy and logistics are key to victory – and the Ukrainians have a huge advantage in these matters because they still enjoy the support of the Western coalition, which is much stronger economically and militarily than the Russian Federation and its supporters.
The last time you were in Ukraine was in September 2023. What impressed you most during this visit?
I thought a lot about agriculture and the Black Sea where I was. I think the more we know about this war, the clearer it becomes that Russia has been trying to use food as a weapon against Ukrainians from the beginning. In this way you also want to demonstrate that you control food supplies to many countries in Africa and Asia. For this reason he is trying to make the situation more difficult for Ukraine and the world by destroying its agriculture or damaging the Novaya Kakhivka dam. While in Ukraine, I wondered what this meant for local farmers, for Odessa, for other ports and for grain exports.
What is really impressive is that the Ukrainians did something that no one would have expected: they destroyed a large part of the Russian Black Sea fleet and opened a corridor for commercial grain shipments in the western Black Sea. This is a Ukrainian naval victory that no one in the West really noticed.
I was in Ukraine three times during the war. The first in September 2022, then in February 2023 and the last time in autumn. It is clear to me that, unlike a year ago, when the Ukrainians went ahead and thought they could win quickly, now they see that it will be much more difficult. They encountered strong Russian resistance, trenches and minefields. The last time I spoke to them, I had the feeling that they had no intention of stopping fighting, but the public mood had swung from optimism to something like grim determination.
They must demine their territory, destroy the Kerch bridge and take control of some logistical elements of this war. To do this, they need to acquire some equipment that they don’t have.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview for Time magazine that “the most terrible thing is that in some parts of the world people have become accustomed to the war in Ukraine” and treat it like a television program that is same for a long time. a long time and it’s starting to get boring. Do you also have this impression?
Most Americans want to continue supporting Ukraine. They believe Russia’s aggressive invasion was inappropriate, profoundly wrong. This is why they are on the side of the Ukrainians and want them to win the war. So, while I can understand President Zelensky’s frustration, I don’t think most people are truly bored by this armed conflict.
Mandel Ngan/AFP / AFP Volodymyr Zelenskyj in Washington, December 12, 2023.
Are you too optimistic? Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently said that the war has been going on for too long and that everyone is tired of it. From the outside it seems that there are more and more such people in the United States.
There is still a clear pro-Ukrainian majority in the US political elite, both in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Indeed, there is no issue in American politics on which there is greater consensus. The problem lies with some very determined Republicans who are working hard to stop aid deliveries to Kiev. Due to their numbers in the House of Representatives, they are able to block the US government and their party colleagues and do other extreme things. This undoubtedly gives them a strong position. So the problem is not the loss of majority support, but the strong organized minority and our system that gives them more weight than they actually have.
During his September visit to the United States, Democratic Party senators asked President Zelensky what would happen if the United States stopped supporting Ukraine. He replied that Ukraine would lose. Is this scenario realistic?
I would like to underline something that is sometimes forgotten in Europe. This is first and foremost a European war and Europeans must win it. And they are well prepared for this. No European, apart from the Ukrainians of course, has to fight. Europe only has to finance this war and its economic advantage over Russia is enormous. Sometimes I hear from Europe that Americans do not support Ukraine enough or will not do so in the future. This is the worst European tradition, in which all responsibility for everything, for better or for worse, is placed on the Americans.
Continuation of the material below the video
I believe that the Biden administration has pursued the right policy towards this war from the beginning. Shortly after the outbreak, the US president told European allies: “We will do everything we can, but we can’t do it without you, we need you.” This is the right approach. Berlin, Paris, London and Warsaw should be able to cope without us, whether Trump is in the White House in the future or not.
This is a European war, but it cannot be won without the United States.
I don’t entirely agree with this. Germany is subtly increasing its aid to Ukraine. The new Polish government, clearly pro-Ukrainian, is also a harbinger of some changes. I believe that, unlike the previous government, it will find new ways to provide effective assistance to Ukraine. But I don’t want to run away from Trump. I believe that if he becomes president, all hell will break loose in the United States – and it won’t just be about ending aid to Ukraine.
Getty Images Donald Tusk still president of the European Council in the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev, 2019.
We will lose the rule of law indefinitely. Trump has already said that he will prosecute Joe Biden and his political critics using the judicial system. He wants to create concentration camps for illegal immigrants and also wants to replace the entire federal bureaucracy with 54,000 people. pre-selected and loyal employees. Under his rule, the United States will struggle for its existence and will be immersed in internal problems. In foreign policy, Trump will rhetorically support Russia: he is a supporter and admirer of Putin. We will be a source of trouble for everyone else.
What will all this mean for Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the European Union?
I don’t like apocalyptic scenarios. The Europeans have already shown that they can help Ukraine – and should continue to do so, especially in the areas of sanctions and energy. So, if the United States were out of the picture, it would be bad news, but winning this war is not beyond the capabilities of the Europeans. They have the ability to do it.
Valery Zaluzhny, head of the Ukrainian army, in an interview for the British weekly “The Economist” he stated that the fight with Russia has reached a dead end and neither side is able to move forward, and furthermore Ukraine does not have the necessary weapons. President Zelensky responded by saying that the Ukrainian army is considering a new strategy: it wants to “advance faster” and strike “unexpectedly.” There is talk of a rift between Zaluzhny and Zelenskyj. You had the opportunity to talk to many senior Ukrainian officials, what is your assessment of this situation?
They worked together for a long time under very difficult circumstances. I would be very surprised if this changed. I think there is an objective tension between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, which describes the reality of this war – and is a signal to rethink the technological side of the conflict. The Ukrainians cannot be expected to advance rapidly in conditions in which the US military would not even attempt to advance.
Alexey Furman / Stringer / Getty Images President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny during the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine, August 24, 2023.
At the same time, Zelensky has the political goal of showing that Ukrainian soldiers are okay. As Załużny describes real difficulties, political leaders may fear that if they do not achieve a clear victory, they will lose Western support.
Oleksiy Arestovych, a former advisor to the head of the presidential office, gave an interview to the independent Russian website Meduza, in which he accused President Zelensky of an insufficient fight against corruption and blamed him for the poor result of the counteroffensive. He also said he was behaving in an increasingly authoritarian manner, persecuting his political opponents like himself. Only a few months ago Ukrainian politics seemed coherent, what has changed?
It’s something personal that I don’t fully understand. Arestovych’s attitude has changed a lot in a relatively short time. What he says now does not match what he said recently.
Arestovich proposes exchanging occupied territories with Russia in exchange for Ukraine joining NATO. Is this the way to end the war?
I think this is a stupid idea. First of all, the Russians don’t want the war to end. Secondly, this proposal gives them the right to veto Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which they actually do not have. In my opinion, this is an extremely pro-Russian proposal because it assumes that the Kremlin has some kind of veto on NATO membership, and we have to make concessions to overturn this veto. This is not the case. Ukraine can join the Alliance without controlling its entire territory. This does not require any agreement with Russia. After all, NATO was created as an alliance between the United States and West Germany, which was a quintessential country that did not control all of its territory.
“The Economist” writes that the war in Ukraine could last another five years and states that neither Russia nor Ukraine are willing to make concessions that would put an end to the conflict. How do you think events will unfold in the future?
As a historian, I must say that war is a truly unpredictable phenomenon. We must be moderate in imagining any scenario. We can be a little more certain about how this will end: Wars end when one side experiences more political pressure than it can handle. It does not necessarily have to lose all its territory.
The Americans didn’t lose in Vietnam because they lost all the territory they controlled. Nor was it due to an inability to continue financing the war. Americans lost in Vietnam because it was too much for them politically. This is how wars usually end, and this is how they will end, and one or the other side will no longer be able to cope politically.
Now it’s about who will fail first.
I think it’s more likely that it’s Russia, not Ukraine. The Russian political system seems strong and resilient, but if we remember Prigozhin’s march on Moscow, we see that a coup can occur there at any moment. The Russian system is very unpredictable. It has this characteristic that all dictatorships have: it seems stable, until suddenly it turns out that it is only an appearance. I think the war will end when the pressure on the current regime in Russia becomes too great. The only question is what will trigger it.
What is the difference between the conflict in Israel, attacked by the terrorist organization Hamas, and Russia’s war in Ukraine?
There is a huge difference in scale. Hamas intervened in Israel with several hundred people, Israel sent several thousand people to Gaza. Russia, according to very conservative estimates, sent half a million people to Ukraine. It is known that Gaza has two million inhabitants, Israel – nine, Ukraine – about 40 million, Russia – 140 million. The war between Russia and Ukraine is much more important for the world order than the war in Gaza. The armed conflict in Ukraine does not raise doubts about moral issues: Russia is committing cruelty, aggression and genocide, while Ukraine, in turn, is fighting a classic war of self-defense. The Israel-Gaza conflict is morally complex: it cannot be said that all the damage is caused by one side alone.
Can the world endure these conflicts, or will they begin to merge and lead to another world war?
It is very good that Ukraine stands up to Russia. Failure to do so would increase the likelihood of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, which could escalate into something much bigger. If we are afraid of China, we should reconsider our policy towards Ukraine even more, because supporting it will discourage Beijing and dissuade it from any military intervention. Ukrainians are helping us survive in this critical moment.
Let’s go back to the United States. Tom Nichols of “The Atlantic” compared Donald Trump to fascists. He also wrote that even people who previously supported him may now change their minds, so as not to follow him into darkness. Are the United States and Europe ready not to follow Trump?
If we want to look for an analogy with fascism, Trump historically resembles Benito Mussolini more. He looks for the greatest fascists to admire in the world, he is rather submissive. He turns to Putin to tell him what to do. In one of his last election speeches he stated that enemies abroad are nothing compared to enemies at home, to which he then devoted a lot of attention. I think that’s how he sees the world. Once in power, he will admire and respect dictators abroad and will be willing to do whatever they ask him to do. However I don’t think Trump will start any war, it’s not his style. He is not a militarist, he is more of a coward: he doesn’t want to take risks.
Mikhail Svetlov / Contributor / Getty Images Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at a bilateral meeting at the G20 summit, Japan, June 28, 2019.
I think that after Trump’s victory there will be instability in the United States and this will have dramatic consequences. Washington will probably not be able to intervene in the various events happening around the world. It’s hard for me to empathize with the thinking of people who support Trump. Personally I believe that this time he is building his campaign on openly fascist bases. He announces that he will imprison his political opponents and journalists and will take revenge.
Will he succeed?
Personally I don’t think so. There are many Americans who simply don’t like Biden, but don’t want the country to fall apart. I believe that Trump ultimately will not convince these people and therefore he will not come close to winning. Unfortunately, Biden or any other Democratic candidate has to win by a wide margin – it has to be a clear victory. Otherwise, we could see all kinds of events.
2024-01-03 06:04:03
#Timothy #Snyder #Ive #Ukraine #times #noticed #Putin #doesnt