On March 30, the head of the military department of Azerbaijan held a meeting with the participation of deputies, commanders of military units, heads of departments and services, which was joined by the commanders of military units located on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The operational situation at the border was assessed, an order was given to “maintain high combat readiness”. This is public information. In fact, what problem was posed, one can only conclude.
In the second half of the same day, shots of “the movement of armored vehicles, manpower and towed artillery of the Armenian Armed Forces” appeared on the Internet. The Ministry of Defense of Armenia clarified that these are edited footage from old videos. This morning, the military department of Azerbaijan made a second statement, where, referring to those videos, it claims that the Armenian side is “concentrating manpower, armored vehicles and artillery in the direction of the border”. Baku blamed “Armenia and its sponsors” for the potential tension on the border.
Later, the State Information Security Agency of Azerbaijan denied the news circulating on local social networks that “combat operations have begun on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, there are casualties.” Literally an hour later, the pro-government haqqin.az published an article entitled “What is happening on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan?”, in which, “surely”, he described the “accumulations of manpower, armored vehicles and towed artillery on the Armenian side” in the direction of the Yeraskh settlement of Ararat Marz. “.
The key idea of the publication is that “the statement of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan should be considered as a preventive warning to prevent new tensions, and if the Armenian side does not respond to the call and withdraw troops from the border regions, then the Azerbaijani army will have to take appropriate measures.” Any country has the right to reorganize, move and replenish troops in its sovereign territory.
It is true that the press release is not yet an official threat, but it is very close to it. Why Baku threatens with “preventive” escalation is obvious. in a few days, an Armenia-USA-EU conference will be held in Brussels, the practical-objective significance of which will perhaps be clear in terms of time and geopolitical space, but from a political point of view, such a meeting cannot be underestimated. In the opposite case, Baku would not have convulsed.
To say that Aliyev will not go to a new tension, due to the pragmatism of not aggravating the relations with the USA and the European Union, would be exaggerated optimism. The threat is very likely indeed. The background of the “anti-terrorist struggle” can contribute to this. Dozens of people were arrested in Turkey on suspicion of cooperation with the Islamic State, today the FSB of the Russian Federation arrested three suspected terrorists in the cities of Makhachkala and Kaspiysk in Dagestan. It is the northern border of Azerbaijan. A few days ago, two persons were arrested in Baku on charges of organizing an assassination attempt against the head of the executive power of Lenkoran region.
The meeting between the presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan has been postponed, the reason is not known, but a few days after the announcement was made, Iran’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary in Baku Mousavi resigned from his post. The prospect of resuming the activities of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran remains uncertain. There is no guarantee that local elections in Turkey will not be followed by internal tensions. A few days ago, Azerbaijan attributed the function of “organizing terrorism” to the EU observation mission in Armenia.
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