There is only 9% of water stored – 2024-07-28 11:12:22

Following the passage of three frontal systems through the region in June, most of the meteorological stations recorded surplus rainfall for the date and year in the Coquimbo region. This positive result is a contribution but does not mean the end of the drought, given the percentage of water stored in reservoirs that remains low and other situations, which are reported in the CEAZA Climate Bulletin.

The first frontal system, the report details, occurred on June 8 and 9, “mainly affecting the province of Choapa, while the second occurred between June 13 and 14, with a large amount of precipitation throughout the region, and the last one occurred between June 21 and 22, leaving large amounts of precipitation in Choapa and Limarí and large amounts of snow throughout the mountain range.”

The values ​​in Salamanca stand out with 204.5 mm, Combarbalá with 155.8 mm and Las Cardas with 105.5 mm. The region on average is experiencing a surplus of precipitation, with all stations except El Trapiche and the La Laguna reservoir having more precipitation than the average to date.

As a result, the water stored in the Elqui province is 9% of its capacity, in Limarí 5% and in Choapa 45%, according to this climate bulletin. Therefore, there is a larger water reserve stored in Choapa and a smaller one in Limarí.

Regarding the flows, the bulletin indicates that they have been below normal in the three basins of the region. The main rivers registered 33% (Elqui), 35% (Limarí) and 54% (Choapa) of the historical values ​​of the season, respectively, well below the climatic average.

Neutral Phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle

On the other hand, it is worth noting that during June the equatorial Pacific Ocean reached the Neutral phase of the ENSO cycle (sea surface temperature anomalies less than 0.5°C in all monitoring regions).

These conditions should lead to a La Niña phase over the next few months given the pattern of anomalies expected to dominate in the equatorial band. “Specifically, weak La Niña conditions are expected to definitively establish themselves between July and September and to persist at least until summer 2025,” the report states.

This is related to the temperature forecast, which according to the analysis of the meteorological area of ​​CEAZA, “global models predict an average temperature that, from the Coquimbo Region to the north, should be below or within the normal range along the coast, as a consequence of the arrival of the La Niña phase, and within or above the normal range in inland areas. To the south of the Coquimbo Region, on the other hand, the forecast of an average temperature below the normal range prevails along the coast.”

Snow cover

“The month ended with a snow cover of 6,320 km2, a value around the normal values ​​for the season,” the bulletin reports.

In this sense, “what is important for reservoirs and flows is what has accumulated until September, when the rainy season ends and the snowmelt season begins in the mountain range,” says Cristian Muñoz, statistical geoscience modeler at CEAZA, so it is advisable to pay attention to the snow cover levels.

The Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones is part of the scientific technological consortium made up of the Regional Government, the University of La Serena (ULS), the Catholic University of the North (UCN) and the Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA Intihuasi).

For more information on forecasts for the Coquimbo Region, visit www.ceazamet.cl.