‘The world stands at a crossroads’: think tank Rasana’s annual report

The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasana) has Annual reports has issued which states that the world as a whole stands at a crossroads.

The report, titled ‘Obstacles to Peace and Strategic Manipulation’, after a detailed analysis of political, economic and defense dynamics around the world, says that continued conflict will lead to further instability and major conflicts. can lead to, cooperation is needed to address these challenges and build a more stable and peaceful international system.

The International Institute for Iranian Studies is a non-governmental think tank that provides research and analysis on Iranian, regional and international affairs.

This organization has been publishing an annual strategic report every year for the last eight years.

Rasanah’s 2023 strategic report has three main points: major international events, changes in Saudi policy during 2023 and an analysis of the Iranian situation. Below is a summary of the key points discussed in the report.

Uncertain situation in the Middle East

The report examines in detail the situation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict arising from Israel’s aggression on Gaza since Operation Al-Aqsa, which has cast a cloud of uncertainty and instability over the region. have gone

The report said the motivations for the Al-Aqsa storm included the disruption of peace efforts and the rise to power of a far-right government in Israel.

This government has sabotaged efforts at a two-state solution and turned a blind eye to settlers’ dispossession of Palestinian land.

In addition, before the Al-Aqsa storm, thousands of settlers stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque and carried out hundreds of attacks on Palestinian citizens and their properties.

The Israeli political crisis has intensified since the attack on Gaza and could escalate in the coming days, leading to the fall of “the most extremist government in Israeli history,” the report said.

The report further states that due to the war in Gaza, the issue of Palestine has been highlighted worldwide.

The report presents three possible scenarios for Israel’s war on Gaza:

1. Israel’s advance into southern Gaza could continue, sparking violence in the West Bank and increasing Hezbollah attacks on Israel. Apart from this, the activities of Houthis in Bab al-Mandab are also likely to continue.
2. The second scenario is a deadlock in which Israeli aggression on Gaza and acts of genocide continue. In this case, there is a fear of spreading the flames of war to other countries in the region.
3. The third scenario is that the pressure at the international level increases so much that an agreement is reached to end the ongoing war and release the hostages.

The report makes it clear that the current situation in the Middle East is extremely complex and uncertain.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

This annual report also covers Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 in detail and states that 2023 is an important milestone in the realization of this vision, during which several concrete and ground-breaking initiatives have been witnessed.

At the national level, many changes were brought about under this vision, especially the empowerment of women.

Saudi women are playing a prominent role in key fields, such as defense and space, which have long been monopolized by men, underscoring their importance to the kingdom.

According to the report, a new scenario is being developed in Saudi Arabia as a symbol of the high position of women in the world.

In addition, Saudi Arabia has made progress in the fields of education, innovation, scientific research, artificial intelligence, protection of citizen identity, and preservation of cultural heritage.

In addition, Saudi Arabia promoted the country’s soft power through sports and won the competition to host the 2030 Expo.

According to the report, the pace of development in Saudi Arabia seems to be accelerating, and this development will continue in the near future in various sectors, but it is important to keep in mind that many regional and international powers are looking at this experience of Saudi Arabia. are in place, and a number of potential challenges may arise in the meantime, particularly the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.

Tensions between China and the US and the ‘chip war’

In addition, an important topic of the report is the growing competition between China and the United States and the efforts of the United States to encircle China in East Asia and China’s countermeasures.

The analysis presented in the report is that the tension between the two countries will continue in 2024, however, both countries will avoid direct confrontation.

On the other hand, the United States is trying to establish a strategic balance with its allies in East Asia, the axis of which is not international competition with China, but competition between Asian countries.

The purpose of this strategy is to avoid the damage and potential loss of US power that would result from a direct confrontation with China.

Key US allied powers, particularly Japan, have made significant changes in their military priorities.

According to the report, the confrontation between America and China is also going on in the field of electronic chip. Both the US and China have imposed restrictions on chip exports beyond the usual customs duties etc. in order to take the lead in the rival’s computer industry.

Following in the footsteps of America, Europe has imposed restrictions on the export of chips. In response, China has made significant progress in sensitive chip technology, disproving the common perception, and the Chinese company SMIC has crossed an important milestone by making a seven-nanometer chip for the Huawei smartphone.

Threats from artificial intelligence

An important area covered in the report is artificial intelligence and its use in the defense industry in particular.

The battlefield is rapidly changing due to artificial intelligence, and its lightning-fast advances have changed ideas about conventional weapons.

The concerns associated with this technology are heightened when these capabilities fall into the hands of non-state actors such as terrorists or insurgent groups.

Russia-Ukraine War

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is the main topic in the report of Rasana in the international arena. According to the report, Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia has failed, leading to a stalemate in the war, with neither side able to make significant progress.

According to the report, in hindsight, despite the mounting economic and political burdens, there is little chance of a quick resolution to the conflict and it is feared that it will continue for a long time.

Due to this conflict, Europe will also suffer from the situation of uncertainty and the tension between the countries will increase.

The Russia-Ukraine war is the epitome of Germany’s recent national security policy.

The news report also examines the expansion of NATO membership against the background of this conflict.

However, on the other hand, Israel’s aggression on Gaza has diverted attention from the Russia-Ukraine war and now the eyes of America and Europe are focused on the Middle East.

For this reason, Western aid to Ukraine has also decreased.

Restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran

An important development in 2023 is the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which began with Chinese cooperation in March 2023 in Beijing.

After that, a series of dialogues began between the two countries, in which both respected each other’s integrity, reiterated refraining from interfering in each other’s internal affairs, and reduced disagreements on regional disputes, especially the issue of Yemen. Decided to bring.

It was during 2023 that the Jeddah Summit was held in which Syria was re-admitted to the Arab League after 2011.

Abstract

The essence of Rasana’s report 2023 is that the international system is facing a critical situation.

Competitive alliances: Major powers are establishing their spheres of influence around the world, creating conflicting interests and increasing tensions.

Addressing Global Challenges: Focusing on this power struggle has diverted attention from more pressing issues such as climate change, terrorism and the refugee crisis.

The Middle East is under threat: The region, with its historical and defensive significance, is particularly prone to instability.

Broken System: Current international laws and mechanisms are failing to deal with conflicts and crises, as seen in Israel’s response to the war on Gaza.

The world as a whole stands at a crossroads. A situation of continued conflict can lead to further instability and major conflicts. Cooperation is needed to address these challenges and build a more stable and peaceful international system.

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