The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgiyeva, said that the world is gradually abandoning the dollar. According to the head of the IMF, if earlier 70% of the reserves consisted of American currency, now this figure has decreased slightly to 60%.
But Georgiyeva does not accept the discussions about the complete collapse of the dollar as real and considers them exaggerated. The head of the IMF noted that in the current situation, the euro is the only competitor to the dollar. A number of economists also agreed with Georgiyeva that there is currently no alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency.
However, recently, international experts make pessimistic predictions about the dollar. They believe that the depreciation of the US currency will be observed due to the global crisis. The dollar, the world’s leading currency system, will lose its current appeal.
On topic Publika.azspeaking to economist expert Eldeniz Amirov said that currently there is no country that can pose a threat to the dollar.
“We are not talking about endless, unrealistic and populist speeches. We are talking about countries that can produce real results, but this is not the case. I think that in the near term – for the next 20-30 years, the dollar will remain the undisputed currency. Today, a significant part of the world’s currency reserves are kept in dollars. Exchanges are made in dollars.”
The expert noted that the reason for this is the dollar’s leading position in the world currency system.
“The reason for this is neither its quality nor its color. The reason the dollar is like that is because it belongs to the world’s largest economy. This suggests that if a country is going to replace the dollar currency, then it should also replace the United States. This is not possible during the period when the USA is leading the world economy.
Another issue is Japan, another country allied to the United States. Japan has the third largest economy in the world.
And Japan has no problem with the dollar. Those who have a problem with the dollar are America’s rivals. Most of the countries in the top ten in terms of GDP and economy have good relations with the United States. In such a case, it is not realistic that these countries will have a negative impact on the dollar. There can only be attempts,” Amirov concluded.
Economist Akif Nasirli noted that if the collapse of the dollar begins, the process will not be completed in a short time. According to him, the process of creating an alternative to the dollar will take much longer.
“It will take several decades to create competition in the world financial sector in this direction. At that time, we will not calculate our manat only in terms of dollars in the financial market where 2-3 currencies compete. We will consider strengthening the manat in several currencies. For example, if the National Bank releases four hundred million dollars of currency on the market per month, if there are 4 competing alternative currencies, we will release 100 million of each currency. The best way is to raise the level of production in the country’s economy and regulate the exchange rate of the manat through exports. In this case, we can establish our own policy regardless of the currency in the world.”
The economist believes that the economy of the currency country that wants to be an alternative to the dollar should first of all be strong.
A. Nasirli said that the opinions voiced about countries’ rejection of the dollar are not serious.
“There are a number of statements, but no concrete steps. For example, Russia, Iran, China, India have signed certain declarations and made statements in this direction. But it has not been possible to give up the dollar for those countries yet. In fact, it is a good idea that putting an end to the dominance of the dollar in the world and forming alternative currencies can give an impetus to the formation of a competitive environment and the development of currencies in the world financial sector. Let’s say that the occurrence of any deep crisis in the United States leads to the weakening of the dollar in certain directions. When an alternative to the dollar is needed, such a currency is not found. For several years, the euro has been getting closer to the dollar’s competitive level. But it has not yet reached that level. It is known that currently the cryptocurrency sector is developing rapidly in the world.”
The economist also mentioned digital currencies and assets that are currently transforming the global economy and may affect the dollar in the future:
Cryptocurrencies can perform the activity of the dollar, which plays the role of “world money”, more efficiently. In addition, in the last few years, the cryptocurrency of the country’s national currency has been put into circulation. The development of cryptocurrencies almost paves the way for the creation of an alternative to the dollar, the creation of an alternative currency in the international financial market and world trade.
Ayshan Rahim
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