The three “stairs” that will decide the next day at Maximos

On the eve of an election contest, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his family are used to “betting” on the outcome, writing down their predictions on a piece of paper. They will do so, he said, in 12 weeks when the Euro referendum closes the electoral cycle that opened in May 2023.

Even if that day Mitsotakis does not choose to have the Prime Minister’s notebook open at the same time, it is certain that he will refer to his notes the next morning.

Because the threshold that his faction will manage to overcome will automatically force him to make decisions – of greater or lesser scope – for the continuation of the government term, acting as a catalyst, depending on the performance of the other parties, in internal developments – of limited or extensive depth .

Polls may for now show that the political hegemony of the center-right faction is not threatened, with interest turning to the “battle” for second place and, therefore, the conflict for the future of the progressive space, but the blues have their own them, intense concerns. Mainly for the discussions that may open up after the political showdown both for the government profile, the persons and the governance agenda, as well as for the physiognomy of the ND.

The ND’s performance in the last European elections works as a safety net: 33%+ in 2019 and the nomination of at least eight MEPs will bring the smallest possible turmoil within the government and party.

In itself, Mitsotakis’ avoidance of defining the bar for the European elections says a lot about the importance he attaches to it. A few days ago, when he spoke of a “distance” that “always exists” between national and European elections, he actually indirectly justified the expected losses for his faction.

That is, the comparison between the percentage of next June and the elusive, according to the blue assumptions, 40%+ of last June.

Anything above the 2019 result, however, combined with a widened distance from the second – of the order of 15 points – will open, as a government source says, “the clean cycle desired by Mitsotakis, until 2027”.

In other words, the result of the Eurocalp is a crash test (also) for the prospect of renewing the government’s mandate in three years. Mitsotakis is already acting on the grounds that Greece definitely needs two four years to change “track”, he has refuted the scenario (which has recently returned) that he is eyeing European office after the European elections and constantly refers to the Greece of 2030, claiming freedom of movement in remainder of the term: from the content of the agenda, to the persons of the government.

Such freedom can come, according to government officials, only through the consolidation of current political affiliations, as evidence of renewed “confidence” in government choices. This is Maximos’ overarching goal, even if it is achieved in the summer with… lopsided numbers.

Any… fall outside the “net” of 33%, even if the… 3 in front of the ND percentage is not lost, prescribes strong reflection in the prime minister’s office and shocks in Piraeus.

The blue-collar admission is a given that, although the European elections are easier without the stake of governability, political conclusions will definitely be drawn. The question is, on the one hand, the interpretation that Mitsotakis will choose to give to the “messages” behind a (bad) performance of 31%-32%, and on the other, the way he will choose to manage them. “Reflections or reflections – plural” answers a government agent laconically.

One does not need a dive into the past to remember the blue alarms in the face of clear “warnings” from society. The painful upheavals of the blue goals in the second round of the self-governing elections last October are recent.

At that time, Mitsotakis put aside the word “sovereignty” and used “trust”, he ordered that the government’s pace should be opened more dynamically, he tried to balance the complaints of his deputies up to their behind-the-scenes attacks on government officials, he chose a politically neutral time (principles of 2024) for sudden “corrections” of his previous decisions in the government scheme.

The estimates of the blue ones agree on one thing: if there are new “messages” from the citizens, immediate (summer, they say) but also broad (probably with structural features) government facelift will be one way.

The deterioration of the government can be seen in the qualitative data of the opinion polls and despite the fact that there is no indication of a reversal of the political correlations, Maximou does not seem to underestimate the risks of the Eurocalp.

“These are not polls offered only for party power registration,” Mitsotakis has said, “nor much more for blind protest and sending inexpensive messages for internal consumption.”

It is not a secret that Maximos is anxious about the expression of dissatisfaction with the government with support “by tradition”, as pollsters estimate, of the smaller parties. A percentage that will be in front of… 2, anything from 29% and below, will be treated as a major setback for the ruling faction, which will bring it to “difficult” decisions. Political-ideological debates about the direction of the party, internal disputes, immediate attempts to regroup the forces of the governing group and even questions about the timing of the national elections are prescribed.

Whether the Eurocalp crash test can even affect the time of the national ballot is, however, according to an experienced analyst, also connected to other factors that dominate the performances of the second and third parties: the gap between them, that is, which will show if at the same time as the downfall of the first one it projects an alternative governance or not.