COVID-19 Positivity Rate Continues to Rise
The positivity rate of COVID-19 continues to rise and is approaching the level it was at the beginning of the year, with the rebound that has been ongoing since December.
“Positivity is very high, just like the daily cases,” said Dr. Marcos Lopez Casillas, research manager at the Public Health Trust.
This Saturday, the positivity rate was 27.64%, while in January it reached 31.67%. The upward trend started in the second week of April, following Easter, according to data from the Health Department.
Meanwhile, an average of 1,010 cases and 321 reinfections are being reported daily. As of June 23, the reinfection rate was 68.79%, classified as a substantial level, after low and moderate. The three regions with the highest number of reinfections are Ponce, Bayamón, and Caguas, according to Salud.
“The problem we face is that most of the tests being conducted in laboratories are antigen tests. Although they confirm the presence of the virus, they do not contribute to genomic surveillance, and we are unaware of the outcomes of these tests,” said Dr. Lopez Casillas.
In addition, many people are resorting to home COVID-19 tests, and the data from these tests usually does not enter the Division of Health Epidemiology, he added.
“Perhaps only 10 to 15% of the laboratory tests being conducted are molecular tests (PCR),” he said, emphasizing that these are the tests used for genomic surveillance.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), genomic surveillance allows scientists to track the spread of the virus and monitor changes in the genetic code of SARS-CoV-2 variants. This information helps in understanding how variants may impact public health.
Based on the data from molecular tests, Dr. Lopez Casillas commented that the XBB.1.5 variant continues to be predominant, with some lineages of it. In the United States, the XBB.1.5 variant is responsible for 40% of new cases.
“We are closely monitoring it. The symptoms of the circulating virus remain the same. Some doctors have also reported manifestations of conjunctivitis,” he stated.
Dr. Lopez Casillas emphasized that the greatest risk of mortality continues to be among individuals aged 60 or older, although he warned in May that a 17-year-old boy died from the virus.
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Continuing the trend that began in December, the positivity rate of COVID-19 is steadily rising and approaching the levels seen at the beginning of the year. According to Dr. Marcos Lopez Casillas, a research manager at the Public Health Trust, the positivity rate is currently very high, reflecting the increased number of daily cases. The rate reached 27.64% on Saturday, with a peak of 31.67% in January. It is important to note that the increasing positivity rate may be influenced by the fact that many people are taking home tests for COVID-19, and their results are not included in the statistics of the Health Department’s surveillance system.
How does the increasing use of home COVID-19 tests affect the accuracy of the positivity rate reported by the Health Department’s surveillance system?
The increasing use of home COVID-19 tests can potentially affect the accuracy of the positivity rate reported by the Health Department’s surveillance system in a couple of ways.
Firstly, home COVID-19 tests may have varying levels of accuracy compared to lab-based tests conducted by healthcare professionals. While many home tests are designed to provide accurate results, there is still a possibility of false positives or false negatives. False positives could falsely inflate the positivity rate, while false negatives could lead to an underestimation of the rate.
Secondly, the data from home tests may not always be seamlessly integrated into the Health Department’s surveillance system. When individuals take home tests, it may take some time for the test results to be reported to the Health Department and subsequently incorporated into the surveillance system. This delay could result in a lag in reporting and may not reflect real-time positivity rates accurately.
Furthermore, the increased use of home tests may lead to a higher number of symptomatic or asymptomatic individuals who choose to get tested compared to relying solely on lab-based testing. This higher participation rate could potentially impact the positivity rate by capturing a broader range of cases. While it could help in identifying more positive cases, it might also create a bias towards higher positivity rates compared to previous testing methods.
It is crucial for health authorities to consider these factors when interpreting the reported positivity rate and ensure that appropriate adjustments are made to account for any potential inaccuracies or delays caused by the use of home COVID-19 tests.
The increasing positivity rate of COVID-19, coupled with the surge in cases, has highlighted the need for effective home testing. It is crucial to understand the impact of home testing in curbing the spread and taking necessary precautions for the health and safety of individuals and communities. Let’s stay vigilant and prioritize testing to flatten the curve.