With the counteroffensive having stalled and new weapons unlikely to reach Kiev until at least January 2024, the question now is how can Ukraine resist?
Nightmare scenario
There is a nightmare scenario that Ukraine and the West have been fearing for months now. Western officials have watched Russia concentrate its precision-guided weapons on attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the winter, while maintaining its pace of attack. attacks on cities using unguided bombs.
On the morning of December 29, Ukraine and the West’s nightmare came true when Russia launched a stormy attack across Ukraine, targeting Kiev, Dnipro, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Odessa, and Kharkiv. Accordingly, Moscow used a total of 158 UAVs and missiles in the above attack.
New attacks has prompted Ukrainian officials and US experts to question how long they can hold on through the winter – or hold on to territory – especially as Washington’s long-term military aid is running out. exhausted, unless the US Congress acts soon.
Ukrainian officials believe that Russia’s ability to conduct attacks is even greater than it appears: Moscow could launch more than 300 suicide UAVs in its attack on Ukraine and about 150 ballistic missiles in once fired in Kiev, Ukrainian MP Sasha Ustinova said.
With Ukraine’s counteroffensive having stalled and new weapons unlikely to reach Kiev until at least January 2024, the question now is how they can resist?
“It’s clear that Ukraine is facing a difficult winter. But I think their fighting spirit is still higher than Russia’s. The important thing right now is that we increase support for Kiev,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson commented in an interview earlier this month.
However, that spirit is now being tested, as Ukrainians are startled even in their sleep by dozens of air raid warnings that light up their phones. And support is not yet coming, at least not until the US Congress returns to work after recess in the second week of January or maybe even longer.
“Ukraine needs funding now to continue fighting in 2024,” US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink wrote on X.
U.S. officials have noted combat activity has slowed significantly in recent weeks, and the trend is expected to continue. Weather in Ukraine has dropped below zero and thick layers of snow have hampered travel along the front line for nearly 1,000km, highlighting the prospect of a conflict of attrition for months. Ukraine has made moves to lower the military enlistment age to have more soldiers on the battlefield.
Experts say that Ukraine does not need any “silver bullets”. What they need is just regular bullets.
“It’s clear now that we’ve gone through the counteroffensive. Since it won’t receive large amounts of long-range precision fire, Ukraine probably needs to entrench and defend now. If the US Congress does not approve additional support package, even those lines of defense cannot be stabilized,” said Peter Rough, senior scholar and director of the Center for Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute.
However, Mr. Jonson said that the Ukrainian army is increasingly accessing more long-range attack weapons, and this is forcing Russian warships and fighters to move further away from the front line. But Ukraine has had to build up its military while fending off enemy attacks: Mr. Jonson said Kiev operates about 600 types of Western weapons systems, while also transporting fuel and spare parts. pass through the front line. All of this took place on roads covered in sleet and snow.
Even with a limited long-range arsenal, Ukraine is said by the West to still make a strong impression when it destroys large Russian warships parked in Crimea. On December 26, the Ukrainian Air Force announced that it had destroyed a main Russian landing ship stationed in Crimean waters. The announcement from the Ukrainian side has not yet been confirmed and the Russian side has not commented on the destruction of the naval ship.
Experts believe that Russia’s logistics system – which is not really ready to deal with continuous attacks – is a good target.
“If they had long-range weapons, they could completely destroy this logistics system. I think they know this is Russia’s weakness, especially in winter,” said Mr. Ben Hodges, former Army Commander. Americans in Europe commented.
Ukraine is running out of ammunition and time
Ukraine fears they are running out of ammunition and time. Although air defenses cover much of Kiev, they are insufficient to fend off Russian long-range attacks during the winter. When Ukraine needed more air defense forces to prevent the storm of missile attacks on December 29, the country’s officials pointed out that falling temperatures had shifted their priorities: Conflict The sudden attrition means a lot of artillery firepower is needed, but Europe is still far from its goal of producing one million artillery shells by March 2024.
“The biggest problem we face is that they start heavy shelling. Because we won’t have enough ammunition,” Ms. Ustinova said.
However, Ukraine was forced to cut back on military activities amid dwindling support. Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who leads the offensive force in the south this week, told the BBC that Kiev is facing a serious shortage of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, which make up the majority of its arsenal. military.
Meanwhile, Russia’s resources for the special military campaign in Ukraine are still abundant. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said in November that Russia still reserves about 7,000 – 8,000 tanks. Moscow has also switched to a wartime economy and plans to spend 6% of GDP on defense next year.
“Russia is increasing production, especially ammunition. They are not interested in quality but more interested in quantity,” Mr. Pevkur said.
Western officials believe there are between 300,000 and 400,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. In November, Russian forces announced they had captured land around Avdiivka, where the West says the Kremlin is trying to encircle the town, site of a major coal plant. . They also targeted the important railway junction of Kupyansk.
Currently, in the context of Ukraine lacking Western aid, Russia’s focus on the East of the country may cause Kiev to cede more territory.
“This is a very painful thing because we have to pay thousands of lives for every kilometer we gain. Meanwhile, Russia is still controlling more territory,” Ms. Ustinova said.