MEXICO CITY (apro).- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its economic growth outlook for Mexico in 2024 from 2.4%, estimated in April, to 2.2% due to a moderation in demand.
In a video conference, Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s Research Department, said that part of the moderation in demand in Mexico is due to a less pronounced demand from the United States, which reflects the slowdown in that country.
However, for 2025 the financial institution increased its projections from 1.4% to 1.6 percent.
According to the latest update of the World Economic Outlook in Mexico, inflation has stabilised since mid-2023, but as in other countries, there are signs of a more rigid service inflation and some of the wage increases that have been recorded are playing a more important role.
Nevertheless, the IMF considered the monetary policy stance to be appropriate and expects inflation to return to the Bank of Mexico’s target of 3%, plus/minus 1 percent.
In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the international organization revised growth downwards for 2024, from 2% to 1.9% and, as in Mexico, it was revised upwards for 2025: from 2.5% to 2.7 percent.
Petya Koeva said there is a lot of heterogeneity in the region and many differences between countries; a set of nations that will see a slowdown in growth this year and then a rebound next year.
The IMF said the downward adjustment to the economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024 is influenced by the impact of flooding in Brazil and the moderation of demand in Mexico.
Paradoxically, the best forecasts for 2025 are due to the effect that reconstruction after the floods will have on Brazil and supporting structural factors, such as the acceleration of hydrocarbon production.
World economy
For the global economy, the IMF’s projections remained unchanged for 2024 at 3.2%, and for 2025 they rose from 3.2% to 3.3%.
The IMF said global activity and trade strengthened at the end of the year, with trade driven by strong exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector. It also said growth in the first half of 2024 surprised on the upside in many countries, although there were notable surprises on the downside in Japan and the United States.
On inflation, the IMF noted that services inflation is affecting the disinflation process and complicating the normalization of monetary policy. This increases the risk of higher inflation and the organization is outlining a scenario of higher interest rates for longer amid rising trade tensions and rising policy uncertainty.
Given this scenario, he said that the combination of policies must be consistent in order to achieve price stability.
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2024-07-24 05:31:28