He Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) lowered his estimate of the real GDP growth for 2024 by one tenth, to stand at 2.3% in his last economic forecast survey.
It should be noted that the more optimistic projectionbetween the 38 analysts surveyedis from a economy growth of 3.0% and the most pessimistic, 1.6 percent.
He IMEF consider that there is several factors that could affect good performance this year, one of them is operational and financial situation of Pemexsince if its operating cash generation is not improved, the entity will require even greater and increasing transfers and support, which could further erode the fiscal situation of the federal government.
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Another factor that can deteriorate the economic outlook is the continuous drought that has reduced crops of agricultural products this year.
By having an open market, the shortages can be covered with imports, but since several countries are in the same drought situation, the demand for these products increases, and therefore their price,” he explained the day before.
Besides, predicts that a deterioration in the exchange ratedue to the political cycle that has begun in USAcould make these imports even more expensive, predicting a slower downward rate cycle than projected.
*Source: IMEF / Graphic: Erick Retana.
INFLATION AND RATES
Thus, for the inflation the rate forecast for the closing of 2024 increased marginally to 4.2% in this month of April, compared to 4.1% forecast in March.
According to the survey, the 17% of participants chose to raise their previous estimate.
The The most optimistic expectation places inflation at 3.6 percentwhile the More pessimistic places it at an annual rate of 4.9 percent.
Regarding the rate of monetary politicsthe members of the survey increased their projection of the interest rate set by the government to 9.75%. Bank of Mexico for the end of 2024, also above the March estimate when it was located in 9.50 percent.
About him exchange ratethe consensus of economists participating in the survey estimates a year-end with a exchange rate of 18.00 pesos per dollarwith the lowest forecast at 16.50 and the highest at 19.35.
In other data, the IMEF anticipated that Job creation for this year will decrease to 567 thousand placesafter having remained at 600 thousand for seven consecutive months.
While for the traditional public balance the survey expectation is located at -5.0% of GDP and the variable on the current account of the balance of payments is located at -1.05 percent.
FORECASTS 2025
As for the expectations for 2025the first year of next governmentthe real GDP growth rate with reduced to 1.8 percentfrom a previous 1.9 percent.
The prognosis inflation was at 3.77 percentclose to the goal of the Bank of Mexico, and slightly below the previous one of 3.78 percent.
He exchange rate forecast is at 18.80 pesos per dollar; The monetary reference rate for the end of the year is again estimated at 7.75% and employment at 500 thousand, a figure slightly lower than that estimated in March, due to lower forecasts for the economy.
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2024-04-12 09:46:10