(CNN) — US-led airstrikes last week against Houthi rebel targets in Yemen have destroyed less than a third of the Iran-backed group’s global offensive capabilities, an American official told CNN, and the group retains most of its assets. its capabilities to attack ships in the Red Sea.
Despite a massive deployment of strikes last week, including 150 precision-guided munitions fired at nearly 30 sites, the Houthis still have about three-quarters of their capacity to attack commercial vessels on international shipping lanes in the South Sea. Aden, the official added.
This became evident on Monday, when a Houthi-fired missile struck a US-owned cargo ship in the Red Sea, in what appears to be the first time fighters have succeeded in attacking a US-owned or controlled vessel .
Last week’s airstrike was as successful as expected: The US destroyed or damaged 93% of the targets it had selected, but some US officials privately acknowledged that it had done little to curb the Houthis’ ability to continue to attack international shipping.
“We have received a message and there has been some degradation, but we are waiting for a response and we do not believe we have substantially slowed down their military efforts,” a US official said in relation to the attacks.
The limited scope of last week’s operation illustrates the tightrope the Biden administration is walking in the Middle East, where the violent tug-of-war between groups backed by Iran, the United States and Israel is poised to lead to war open.
Washington has been scrupulously trying to avoid a situation in which attacks by the Houthis and other Iranian-backed groups become a second front in the war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas.
Disruption of global trade
Since November, Houthi fighters, who receive significant weapons and other support from Iran, have carried out dozens of attacks on international shipping that the group says are retaliation for Israel’s war on Gaza. These attacks are disrupting global trade, forcing some of the world’s largest shipping companies to avoid waterways, instead adding thousands of kilometers (and potentially millions of dollars) to international shipping lanes by sailing around the African continent instead of crossing the Canal of Suez.
Senior Biden administration officials insist that Friday’s operation against the Houthis succeeded in achieving its goal: degrading the group’s military capabilities.
“This was not a reporting exercise,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said during a briefing with reporters Friday. “This was designed to disrupt and degrade the military capabilities of the Houthis.”
The dozens of targets attacked by the United States on Friday, including command and control nodes, munitions, launch systems, production facilities and air defense radar systems, were chosen specifically to try to make it more difficult for the Houthis to attack ships in sea. as Pentagon officials noted. By design, there were few Houthi casualties.
Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims II, director of operations of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a briefing last week, “It wasn’t necessarily about casualties, it was about degradation of capabilities.” “The sole objective was to eliminate the capability that impedes… freedom of navigation in international waters, and we believe we have done a good job.”
And the UK, which took part in Friday’s attacks, insisted it was an act of “self-defence” aimed at “easing tensions and restoring stability in the region”.
The assessment of damage caused by the airstrikes was first reported by the New York Times.
Iran’s careful calibrations
Declassified US intelligence shows that Iran was deeply involved in coordinating Houthi attacks on commercial and merchant shipping, including providing intelligence on merchant ships crossing the waterway.
US intelligence services believe Iran is carefully calibrating its response to Israel’s war in Gaza, allowing and even encouraging its subsidiary groups to impose costs on Israeli and US interests in the region while refraining from activities that could trigger a confrontation direct with Iran.
U.S. officials fear one side will make a miscalculation, even though none of the major parties – Iran, Israel and the United States – want a wider war. This concern is particularly acute when it comes to the Houthis, who are both deeply ideological in their hatred of Israel and one of Iran’s most operationally independent subsidiary groups.
Closure of a crucial trade route
Analysts believe a prolonged closure of the waterway, which links to the Suez Canal, could cripple global supply chains and push up prices of manufactured goods at a crucial time in the battle to beat inflation. The Suez Canal accounts for 10% to 15% of global trade, including oil exports, and 30% of global container shipping volumes.
“The United States should seek to eliminate as many identifiable targets on the Yemeni coast of the Sea of Aden, as it has done on the Red Sea coast,” said Mick Mulroy, former deputy secretary of Defense for the Middle East in the Trump administration and now an analyst by ABC News. “There should be no radar, launch or storage sites left.”
President Joe Biden said Friday that he “will not hesitate to take additional steps to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce as necessary.”
2024-01-15 23:47:00
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