He Euribor In 2023 she was, once again, the protagonist of family finances. The index to which most mortgages in Spain refer has continued to rise significantly for much of the year, a trajectory that has continued a stabilization and the beginning of its decline. As the twelve-month Euribor itself has demonstrated in these two years, it is difficult to predict what may happen in the future, but experts estimate that In 2024 the index will stabilize around 3%.
This mortgage reference closed the month of December with one of the largest monthly declines in recent years. The month ended with an average of 3.679%which is a lower level than that recorded in the previous months until March, when it closed at 3.647%.
This is the second consecutive decline in the index, which recorded a sharp decline throughout the month of December, driven by the slowdown in interest rates and the prospect of cuts by the government. European Central Bank (ECB) for next year.
About 3%
Looking to 2024, what is expected on the market is a decline in the Euribor, but in a stabilization framework, with drops to around 3%. and without returning to the low levels of the period of negative interest rates. A level that will lower the mortgages of thousands of families, which have undergone sharp increases in the last two years.
He future interest rate cut will be behind this decline. After fifteen months in which the ECB carried out the fastest rise in history, in October it decided to take a break The market assumes this already in mid-2024 rate cuts will occur. But at the ECB, for the moment, they don’t want to say that word.
Taking into account the possibility of these decreases over the next year and if inflation does not cause fear again, the twelve-month Euribor, which always moves with the heat of rates, he will relaxaccording to experts.
“We expect ECB interest rates to decline starting in the second half of the year, unless unexpected events occur that could push inflation back up. Based on this premise, we believe that The Euribor could fluctuate between 3% and 3.5% in the first half of the year. We don’t expect it to fall below 3% before June“, he explains to EL ESPAÑOL-Invertia Paolo Eseizareal estate expert Help my money.
“The Euribor is starting to show signs of exhaustion, so it should stabilize around 4% and, in the second half of the year, it could cut its valuation to 3.5%-3.6%”, he explains to this newspaper Sergio Carbajalresponsible for the Mortgages area Raker. For him “getting to this point would mean reaching normal values for the mortgage market, given that what is unusual is what happened in 2021 and 2022”.
For his part, Simone ColombelliMortgage Manager iSavingsunderlines that, “if everything continues according to plan and in June 2024 the Euribor will be close to 3%, The year could close around 2.7%However, he warns that “this decreasing pace cannot be maintained over time and we cannot yet exclude that there may be another increase, even if minimal, to adjust the levels of this indicator to around 3%”.
[Punto de inflexión del Euríbor: por primera vez en dos años abarata las hipotecas que se revisan cada seis meses]
Similar predictions contemplate Asufin, where they believe that “the March Euribor could already be at 3.3%, that of June at 3% and that of September at 2.8%”. “At the end of next year we could participate a Euribor at 2.6%“, they add.
Manuel Pintoanalyst XTBgoes a little further and believes that “according to the evolution of the Euribor in other periods of significant cuts, such as in 2000 and 2008, It would not be surprising if the key interest rate fell to levels close to 2% throughout the year” driven by the cut in interest rates.
Cheaper installments
These reductions in the Euribor will translate into a reduction in variable mortgage repayments, something that families will appreciate after two years of strong price increases.
Mortgage installments with semi-annual reviewIn fact, they are already getting cheaper thanks to December data, as reported by EL ESPAÑOL-Invertia. Not in vain the Euribor closed December at 3.679%, therefore below the figure recorded last June, which was equal to 4.007%. Currently, The same does not happen with mortgages that require an annual review and do it with December data. A year ago its value was equal to 3.018%, which corresponded to the twelve-month Euribor it’s still above.
However, it is only a matter of time before those who review their mortgage payments every year experience a reduction in costs again. According to iAhorro, if the Euribor is around 3% in June, “this will mean a further reduction in mortgage payments”.
For the moment, the installments of mortgages with semi-annual revision, adds iAhorro, “will continue to increase, even if it is true that at a much lower level compared to the previous revision, between 60 and 110 euros per month”.
What will happen to new mortgages
When rates started to rise again in July 2022, the price of mortgages skyrocketed. From the 1% to which these loans were granted, the interest on the mortgages offered by the banks rose in some cases above 5%.
Currently, banks pass on costs to families an average interest of 4.09% due to the new mortgages,2.65 times more than in January 2022, shortly before the twelve-month Euribor began its dizzying rise. At that time it was 1.542%.
[La firma de hipotecas sobre viviendas baja un 22,3% en octubre y el interés medio se dispara al 3,32%]
So the opposite is now expected to happen. When will the interest rate cut begin? will provide for a reduction in mortgage interest, even if it will not be immediate.
These price drops are expected to revive the mortgage business, which has suffered a sharp decline this year due to rising interest rates, which discourages families from making the most important financial decision of their lives. . It is also true that the mortgages came from a few months of real estate boom due to the high volume of signatures that occurred after the end of the pandemic.
“Towards the middle of the year, if the forecasts are respected and the Euribor manages to fall by 50 basis points, that there is greater access to creditwhich will further encourage the mortgage market, which is directly linked to the sales market,” explains Carbajal of Rastreator.
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2024-01-02 00:36:52
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