He euriborthe index that is used every month as a reference for the calculation of most mortgages in Spain, December closed at 3.679%so that falls below 4% for the first time in the last six months and represents the largest monthly decrease in 14 years.
According to data consulted by EFE, Euribor recorded a significant decline in recent sessions: This Friday it was at 3.51% and Thursday it was at 3.53%, while since last June it was above 4%.
This drop in Euribor will produce in mortgages over 25 years a saving of 19 euros on the monthly installment every 100,000 eurosand 228 euros per year, whose review is every six months, according to the Association of Financial Users (Asufin).
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided this last October. keep interest rates unchanged official after ten consecutive increases which left the price of money at 4.5%. The decision taken in October to maintain interest rates in October would be added to that of the last ECB meeting held on 14 December.
According to the latest projections from Eurosystem experts for the Eurozone, this is expected THE inflation gradually decline over the next year and moving closer to the Governing Council’s 2025 target of 2%.
The Euribor opened 2023 at 3.337% and last November ended with the second monthly decline of the year, closing at 4.022% after the first of August, when it closed at 4.073%. THE continued increases in interest rates in the euro area by the B.C brought the Euribor to levels of 4.16% last October, the highest this year.
Euribor increases They started in April 2022 following the change in monetary policy carried out by the central banks and after more than six years with the Euribor at negative values, in particular since January 2016, when the month closed with 0.042%.
Forecast for 2024
Experts place Euribor next year at levels below 4% given the market’s obvious expectation that there will be no more rate increases by the ECB and that the rate hike cycle is over.
According to estimates by experts from Bankinter’s Analysis department, Euribor will moderate in the coming years. Specifically, according to their estimates, the 12-month Euribor could fall to 3.25% in 2024 and 2.75% in 2025. Both the Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio (Funcas) and CaixaBank Research place the average level of Euribor in 2024 higher than that of Bankinter.
Funcas places it at 4.2%, according to its October forecast, while CaixaBank Research’s expectations for the mortgage indicator are at 3.6% on average for next year, although they point out that at the end of the year the cut could reach levels closer to 3.06. %. For its part, Asufin believes that Euribor could close 2024 at 2.60%, and predicts that it will be at 3.30%, 3% and 2.80% in the coming months of March, June and September respectively.
The internet, insurance and financial comparator Kelisto indicated it in this sense we will see increasingly less pronounced increases mortgages variableswhich could give way to declines for the months of March-April, with an Euribor that could consolidate at levels between 3% and 3.5% for the entire second quarter of 2024.
2023-12-29 12:05:06
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