The EU risks suffering a natural gas deficit in winter

The European Union faces a potential natural gas deficit in the event of a cold winter and a further reduction in Russian supplies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.

In its report on energy security, published on Monday, the agency notes that market fundamentals have relaxed significantly since the beginning of 2023 and that the European Union is on track to fill its tanks to 95% of its operational capacity.

However, full storage is no guarantee against winter volatility. “Our simulations show that a cold winter, coupled with a complete disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU from October 1, 2023, could easily renew price volatility and market tensions,” the agency underlines. .

The report recalls that the drastic decrease of almost 80 billion cubic meters in deliveries of Russian gas to the EU – equivalent to 15% of global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) – exerted “unprecedented pressure” on the gas market. in 2022.

Precisely, this gas supply crisis led to a reconfiguration of global LNG flows, raised natural gas prices to historical highs, both in Asia and Europe, and caused a readjustment of demand.

Global natural gas consumption fell approximately 1.5% in 2022, a figure similar to the 2020 plunge following the first wave of Covid-19 shutdowns.

According to the IEA, a cold winter could increase natural gas demand in the EU residential and commercial sectors by 30,000 cubic meters compared to the 2022/23 heating season. «Given the geopolitical uncertainties, a further decline in Russian gas deliveries to the EU cannot be excluded. If Russian pipeline gas supplies ceased completely from October 1, 2023, a total deficit of 10,000 cubic meters would occur,” the report predicts.

The EU previously covered about two-fifths of its gas needs with Russian energy imports, but following the start of the military operation in Ukraine early last year, it stepped up efforts to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow. The bloc has already banned the maritime transport of Russian oil and has joined the G7 countries in limiting oil prices.

As a result of sanctions and sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Russian gas supplies to the EU have fallen to historic lows.

To compensate for the loss of Russian pipeline gas, the EU has increased LNG imports, including from Russia. According to data from the economic think tank Bruegel, LNG imports from Russia in 2022 reached a three-year high of 19.2 billion cubic meters. With RT

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