The closure of trade on the Wagah border will affect Afghanistan more: experts

Pakistan has closed the Wagah border for trade after being killed by unidentified 26 tourists in Pahalgam area of ​​Indian -administered Kashmir.

The Wagah border is the only ground border between Pakistan and India, which was used for trade, but experts believe that more economic losses will be more than Afghanistan.

The bilateral trade between Pakistan and India has decreased after the Paloma attack in 2019, while trade between Afghanistan and India through the same Wagah had increased as Pakistan allowed Afghanistan’s products to go to Wagah India in 2020.

Bilateral trade between Pakistan and India

According to the research institute called ‘Bureau of Research in Industry and Economics Fundamentalals’, India and Pakistan were strong trading partners by 1956 after partition India.

At that time, trade relations were good to the extent that by 1965, there were nine branches of six Indian banks in Pakistan. However, after fighting various wars and the Paloma attack in 2019, India removed Pakistan from the list of ‘Most Ford Nation’ and imposed 200 % duty on Pakistani exports.

The volume of bilateral trade between Pakistan and India was $ 2.6 billion in 2018, with India supplying to India $ 2.06 billion and Pakistan’s supply to India from Pakistan was $ 49.5 million.

According to 2021 data, India’s supply to Pakistan fell from $ 2.06 billion in 2019 to $ 32.9 million, while Pakistan’s supply to India fell to $ 4 million.

In 2019, trade between Paloma and India between Paloma and India in Balakot, Pakistan, saw a decline in trade due to tensions and which are still intact.

Pakistani cement has a lot of demand in India. Cement and Jeepsum were at the top of the products provided by India from Pakistan in 2019.

Similarly, India’s 98 % Rock Salt demand was met by Pakistan by 2019, but after increasing duty, the export of rock salt saw a decrease.

According to data from 2023 and 24, the total bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and India was $ 1.1 billion, with India’s supply to Pakistan about $ 1 billion and Pakistani supply to India about $ 28 million.

According to the Indian Ministry of Industry, bilateral trade between Pakistan and India is suspended, but Pakistan has partially lifted the ban on export of some medicines from India.

According to the Federation of India Export Organization on the recent Wagah border closure, bilateral trade between Pakistan and India is not equal and in the current situation, India’s trade with Pakistan is only 0.06 % of India’s international trade volume, so this restriction will not affect Pakistan.

Supply from Afghanistan will be more affected

According to the Indian Ministry of Industry and Commerce data, the volume of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan was about $ 1 billion in 2023-24, with India supply from Afghanistan to $ 64.2 million and Afghanistan’s supply from India to $ 35.5 million.

Bilateral trade between Pakistan and India has been suspended since 2019, but the Wagah border between India and Afghanistan has been going on since 2020 and now its closure will affect Afghanistan’s economy.

Products from Afghanistan to India include fresh fruits and herbs, while goods from India to Afghanistan include top drugs, cloth, edible oil, and yarn.

Shahid Hussain is a member of the former Board of Directors of the Pak Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and now the Chairman of the Standing Committee on the Border Chamber of Commerce, Afghanistan, Central Asia Bilateral Trade Promotion.

He told Independent Urdu that “almost all transit cargo trucks in Afghanistan enter Pakistan via Torkham, Ghulam Khan, Kharlachi and Chaman border and then goes to India via the Wagah border.”

According to Shahid Hussain, the Wagah border for transit trade is supplied not only for Afghanistan but also from Central Asian countries through the Wagah border to Indian markets. ‘

He said, ‘Earlier, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government had taxed. This was affected and now the closure of Wagah will affect trade between India and Afghanistan. ‘

It is to be remembered that according to the World Bank’s 2024 data, India has been the top of the trade partners in Afghanistan and 47 % of the total volume of bilateral exports and exports is with India and 34 % with Pakistan, which means that almost half of Afghanistan’s trade is with India only.