Elections in Galicia (18F)
CIS pre-election survey. Majority in 38 seats
The 15-year cycle of power of the People’s Party in Galicia could be coming to an end to make way for a left-wing government. The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) predicts a sharp decline for the Popular Party and puts Alfonso Rueda’s candidacy on the verge of losing the absolute majority, located at 38 seats, which he inherited from Alberto Núñez Feijóo. According to CIS data, the PP will be the most voted force on February 18 with 43.2% of the votes and between 36 and 38 seats. The Galician Nationalist Bloc will surpass its historical records and enter the Galician Parliament with between 20 and 23 seats, obtaining 29.3% of the votes. In third place is the PSOE: 20.4% of the votes and between 15 and 17 seats.
The survey data certifies a fall of the PP which, in the worst of its scenarios, would lose six deputies compared to the 42 that Alberto Núñez Feijóo obtained in the 2020 elections. The survey opens up the possibility that two new actors will enter Galician parliamentarism. Sumar is assigned between zero and two seats and Democracia Ourensana between zero and one.
According to data from the institute directed by José Félix Tezanos, Vox would once again be excluded from the Galician Parliament. The same thing would happen to Podemos. To prepare its forecasts, CSI conducted 11,000 interviews, the largest sample of how many polls have been released to date for the 18F elections.
Distribution of deputies in each province according to the pre-election CIS
Number of deputies of each candidacy by province in 2016, 2020 and CIS pre-election survey for the 2024 elections
The left-wing options (BNG, PSOE, Sumar and Podemos) concentrate 53.6% of the votes in Galicia compared to the right (PP and Vox) which obtains 44.5%. Ana Pontón is the most popular leader. She gets the average rating of 5.77. She is followed by Alfonso Rueda with a 5.39 and Xosé Ramón Gómez Besteiro, with a 4.84.
The Xunta, a problem
Xunta’s government is the fourth problem for Galicians, after unemployment, healthcare and the economy. Regarding the management that the PP has led at the helm of the Xunta in the last 4 years, 46.1% of Galicians indicate that it has been “bad or very bad”, 45.5% say that it has been “very good or good”, and 7.1% say it is right.
43.5% of respondents believe that the current economic situation in Galicia is “very good or good”, while 39.9% consider it “bad or very bad” and 14.2% as average. Compared to 4 years ago, only 16% of Galicians say it is “better or much better”, 32.2% say it is “worse or much worse” and 50% say it is the same.
69.9% of Galicians assure that they will vote on February 18 thinking “about the specific issues of Galicia”, and only 20.3% will do so thinking about “the general issues of Spain”.
last minute vote
The survey reveals an increasingly widespread practice among the electorate which leads undecided voters to choose their voting option at the last minute. This trend means that the last phases of the electoral campaign become decisive in defining the final result. 29.8% of those interviewed decide which party or coalition they will vote for in the last week of the election campaign, of which 5.1% will decide on the election day itself.
2024-01-25 12:33:00
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