The upcoming presidential elections in the United States represent the greatest political risk for the future of the planet because, whatever their outcome, American democratic institutions will be battered, the Eurasia Group estimated on Monday.
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In its annual report, the political risk consultancy estimates that the November 5 vote will “test American democracy on a level the nation has not seen in 150 years,” in reference to the American Civil War.
“The United States is already the most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy in the world. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem regardless of who wins.”
“The outcome of the vote is currently uncertain and the only certainty is that America’s social fabric, political institutions and international reputation will continue to be damaged,” adds the research firm.
According to the report, if Donald Trump, in pole position in the Republican primaries, were to lose again to President Joe Biden, he would likely expose massive fraud and launch widespread intimidation campaigns against election officials and workers.
However, in the event of Joe Biden’s victory, the United States could also face an “unprecedented political crisis” if Trump is jailed in one of the many cases for which he is being prosecuted, Eurasia Group judges. According to the report, however, large-scale violence remains unlikely.
Joe Biden presents the campaign as a fight to save democracy from a new Trump presidency, whose supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021 in hopes of preventing the certification of Biden’s victory.
In case of defeat, Joe Biden would have to bow to the results. But many Democrats will question the real estate tycoon’s legitimacy and some will refuse to confirm his victory, citing the constitutional ban on anyone “engaged in an insurrection” from holding office, according to Eurasia Group.
The research firm also predicts that a Donald Trump back in the White House will use the state as a “weapon” to hunt down his rivals and repress dissent.
The Eurasia Group ranks violence in the Middle East as the second highest global risk, with the war between Israel and Hamas “likely to be only the first phase of an expanding conflict in 2024.”
The third biggest risk concerns Ukraine, as the study predicts the country will be effectively divided in 2024 as Kiev works to retake areas captured by Russia.
In any case, Ukraine would suffer a new blow in the event of the victory of Donald Trump, who does not hide his opposition to the billions in aid paid to Kiev.
2024-01-08 19:43:44
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