The Afghan army can fight the Taliban like in the past

On his visit to Kabul in 2008, US President George W. Bush wanted to assure Afghans that ‘you can count on America, we will stay to ensure security, to ensure security.’

Seven years earlier, after the overthrow of the Taliban government in 2001, then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair declared: ‘This time we will not leave’ – as the West had done in the past to expel the Russians. So what happened after using Mujahideen?

But this is what is happening in Afghanistan now as American, British and other international troops are withdrawing. Joe Biden has given a symbolic deadline of 9/11 for withdrawal, but most are already gone.

The bulk of the British contingent of around 750 troops has left without a grand farewell, with a brief flag-raising ceremony behind gates at Kabul airport. Many British commanders, like their American counterparts, are unhappy with the pace of the withdrawal. Their Afghan allies are facing an enemy of their own. But this has been decided in Washington.

About 650 US troops will remain behind to protect the embassy and Kabul airport. The deployment of Western special forces is being discussed – as shown in some secret British Ministry of Defense documents found at a bus stop in Kent earlier this week. But the Taliban maintain that the Doha agreement with the Americans includes a condition that all Western forces must leave.

In any case, special forces alone will not be able to change the situation. The Taliban are advancing and capturing districts, military bases and border posts. It’s not all going one-way – the government forces have retaken some of the lost territory with the help of US airstrikes. But the rebels will keep coming.

There is also talk of another ‘Falling Saigon’, a momentous incident in April 1975 when American residents boarded helicopters from the embassy’s roof as the victorious Viet Cong and North Vietnamese forces entered the city. were scrambling for The greatest defeat in American military history.

There was no need to create such conditions in Afghanistan. After the fall of Mullah Muhammad Omar’s Taliban regime in 2003, the movement’s key elements fled to Pakistan, providing a great opportunity to stabilize and begin reconstruction.

Instead, George W. Bush and Tony Blair invaded Iraq on the false pretext of Saddam Hussein, who possessed weapons of mass destruction. Critical resources needed to secure Afghanistan were transferred to the Iraq mission. The Taliban retreated, taking advantage of the security vacuum with the alleged help of the Pakistani army and intelligence services.

The Americans and the British were apparently in a state of denial at the time. I am reminded of Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense at the time – who died on Wednesday last week. Speaking to a group of journalists in Mazar-e-Sharif, northern Afghanistan in 2004, he said, “The Taliban have retreated, they are effectively finished, they have no future role in Afghanistan.” But they had already returned when the first suicide attacks occurred.

Now many Afghans who may have moved abroad with their families fear the Islamists taking power and reimposing their brand of brutal, intolerable religious rule. It is a sad reversal of the promising era in 2001 when Afghans returned from abroad to rebuild their country after the fall of Mullah Muhammad Omar’s regime.

But will the Taliban really regain control of the country, and if so, how long will it take? According to a new line of thinking in Washington and London, Mohammad Najibullah – the Afghan president who was ousted by the Russians – was not a mere puppet of the Kremlin, as the West had previously made him out to be, but a remarkable leader who The insurgency was effectively dealt with for a time until economic aid was cut off as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Mujahideen fighting the Russians and the Afghan government were supported by the United States, Britain, other European states, Saudi Arabia, China and Iran. Weapons including Stinger missiles and millions of dollars were sent to them by the Pakistani military. Foreign Islamist fighters who went to Afghanistan, including Osama bin Laden, subsequently promoted al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and brought extremism back to Europe and the United States.

The rebels captured Kabul. Najibullah, who was then tortured, was dragged through the streets of Kabul behind a truck and then hanged from a pole near the presidential palace.

According to this narrative, this will not be the fate of President Ashraf Ghani’s government, which will continue to receive international funding, and thus has a much better chance of survival.

During the period when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) began withdrawing in 2014, in the rush to build up the strength of the Afghan security forces, training courses were shortened, and at times they were not fully prepared. The war was already being waged. The losses to the Afghan army and police are high.

There have been legitimate complaints about corruption and incompetence in the military, as well as cases of the dangerous Taliban infiltrating its ranks. But overall they have defended their country well. I have accompanied the Afghan forces in military operations numerous times over the years, and witnessed their bravery and sacrifice up close.

If American air support and material support from Pakistan to the Taliban and other groups like the Haqqani network were withheld, Afghan forces could fight successfully. However, there is a possibility that the government will quickly split after losing control in the south of the country.

The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan was accompanied by contacts with Mujahideen groups and commanders, particularly Ahmad Shah Masood – ‘The Lion of Panjshir’, who was to become an implacable enemy of the Taliban and later killed by al-Qaeda on 9/11 in New York. was killed before the attacks.

Efforts to reconcile with the rebels were mixed. At the time, Afghan soldiers and their Russian advisers were persuaded not to label Islamist fighters with names such as ‘assassin gangs, imperialist killers, child killers and ‘skull breakers’,” Soviet documents said.

After the second and final phase of the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the war against the forces was not expected to last long. But they generally held themselves well that year, and inflicted a heavy defeat on the enemy in the east of the country as well.

The rebels were to attack Kabul after the victory in Jalalabad under a plan by Hameed Gul of the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). But the Afghan forces not only countered the attack but also repulsed the Taliban.

The Russian government of Mikhail Gorbachev pressured the Najibullah government to try a power-sharing agreement with the opposition, which was also supported by Iran and China, which supported the Mujahideen. But George W. Bush wanted a military victory, and Britain, another active supporter of the rebels, submissively followed the American lead.

For the next three years, the Afghan forces held their fronts firmly and carried out successful operations against the Mujahideen. Ironically, they exposed political and military weaknesses among the Mujahideen, and they were not as effective under the Russians either.

In 1992, the rebels first captured a major city, Khost. It was a propaganda as well as a military victory as Khost was known as ‘Little Russia’ due to its support for the Communists of Afghanistan. But then they failed to proceed from there and there was a stalemate.

It was the events that took place in Moscow that year that had a direct impact on the events that took place in Afghanistan. Boris Yeltsin’s government that emerged from the crisis reportedly refused to sell oil to Afghanistan, because it did not want to appear to be supporting a communist government. Russian subsidies to Afghanistan’s budget had already been cut.

The following year, Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum switched sides with his militia, members of the Kabul government were secretly negotiating with the rebels, and several commanders switched sides.

Mujahideen captured Kabul in April 1992, killing Najibullah. A new governing council was formed, but soon disbanded. 400,000 Afghans lost their lives in a brutal civil war. This eventually led to the Taliban coming to power.

Now, amid growing darkness, Afghanistan faces an uncertain and dangerous future. The outgoing US commander, General Scott Miller, has warned that the country could be facing ‘very difficult times’…Civil war is certainly one way that the imagination continues, and it Should be a cause of concern for the world.’ He urged the Afghan leadership to be united.

But the government and the armed forces need not only unity but international support to face potential tensions. And given the West’s past record, there is no guarantee that they will not withdraw from Afghanistan once again.