Russia will continue to maintain sharp relations with the West, predicts SAB

Since the beginning of the invasion, NATO has undertaken a series of significant practical actions to strengthen deterrence and defense capabilities, such as the development of new regional plans. An important event in strengthening the alliance’s joint capabilities, especially in the Baltic Sea region, is the accession of Finland and Sweden to the alliance.

In the conclusion section, SAB stated that the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised questions about the further scenarios of Russia’s actions, including possible open confrontation with Western countries, including NATO members.

Announcements about reforms of the Russian armed forces, aimed at strengthening the military presence in the western regions of the country, regular threats of using nuclear weapons issued by Russian officials, as well as the generally confrontational tone maintained by Russia, give the impression of the inevitability of an open military confrontation.

A review of the actual situation in Russia, on the other hand, shows several factors that do not confirm what is expressed in Russia’s rhetoric. First of all, the primary task of the Russian defense sector is the war in Ukraine, to which the majority of the armed forces, the resources of the military-industrial complex and the armament reserves accumulated over the years are directed. Russia will need time to restore the equipment lost in the war, train soldiers, as well as restore reserves, according to SAB.

These actions will have to be carried out in conditions where the Russian economy will continue to face challenges and the country will have to evaluate which needs to direct its limited resources to.

Although Putin’s regime remains stable, the war in Ukraine has increased the pressure on the regime, including creating new types of risks, as demonstrated by the “Evgeny Prigozhin Rebellion” in June 2023.

The primary goal of the Putin regime is to maintain its power, and although a confrontational policy with the West promotes public mobilization and support for the regime, a potential escalation or open military conflict can have unpredictable consequences. In the SAB’s assessment, in the short and medium term, Putin’s regime will continue to maintain confrontational relations with Western countries and NATO, including, if necessary, threatening the escalation of the conflict, including the use of nuclear weapons.

It is likely that Russia will continue to use hybrid methods of various nature against NATO members, including information and influence operations, as well as cyber attacks. At the same time, the probability of an open conventional military confrontation with Russia remains low, SAB concluded.