It has not been easy for Ukraine the past two winters. Russia focused their attacks on energy supplies and blackouts were therefore not uncommon. But the Ukrainians were able to hold on strong with the help of Western air defense systems and energy-saving measures.
Although the situation looks different now. Just as winter is almost behind us, Russia has noticeably stepped up its attacks on energy supplies. And that with a force and intensity that had not yet been seen in the past two years of war. “Their tactics have changed. Unfortunately, not for the better for us,” Svitlana Grynchuk, Ukraine’s Deputy Energy Minister, told CNN.
While attacks during the first two years of war were scattered and fired projectiles at large parts of Ukraine’s energy system, the approach is now much more precise. The Russians are now firing dozens of missiles and drones at one target. “In such a short time – in a few weeks of these massive Russian attacks – almost all of our year-long efforts to rebuild and recover were destroyed. In a few days, in a few attacks,” Grynchuk said. (Read more below the photo)
© REUTERS
One million households without electricity
The turning point came at the end of March. Russia then launched one of its largest attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. More than one million households were without power. “On March 22, Russia began to implement its new attack strategy,” said Oleksander Kharchenko, chairman of the Energy Industry Research Center in Kyiv. “The new strategy consists of massive missile attacks on specific targets, with a large number of missiles and drones simultaneously targeting a very limited number of targets.”
In this way, they have managed to completely shut down a large part of the energy network. Last week the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, the largest in the Kiev region, had to fail. “Instead of continuing to target Ukraine’s transmission systems, Russia began carrying out massive attacks on our power generation infrastructure from late March,” Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK (Ukraine’s largest private energy company), told CNN. “Unfortunately, the enemy has further developed its tactics and uses weapons with great precision. The result is a dramatic increase in destructive effectiveness compared to 2023.”
Priorities
The timing of these attacks is striking, since winter is already over. There are two reasons for this, says Kharchenko. First, Russia needed time to build up their arsenal and acquire the necessary knowledge. “This strategy was clearly a long time in the making, they spent a lot of time developing it, they clearly gathered intelligence and prepared very carefully for these attacks.”
Secondly, there is a chance that Russia wanted to wait until the defense of the power plants in Ukraine, in the form of anti-aircraft guns, was phased out after the winter. “I assume that Ukraine had protected its energy infrastructure quite well before the winter, because we expected such attacks to happen,” Olena Pavlenko, chairman of Ukrainian energy think tank DiXi Group, told CNN. “It is not a mistake (to move that anti-aircraft gun, ed.). It’s just prioritizing. We thought that once winter was over, we could probably use the air defense system in other places,” she says. (Read more below the photo)
Trypilska Thermal Power Plant was recently the target of a Russian attack. — © AP
Now the question remains how to proceed. Because this time it is not small energy stations that need to be repaired, but entire power stations that need to be rebuilt. An excellent moment for Ukraine to take a different approach to their energy supply?
On the Ukrainian side, it is mainly yet another sign that they urgently need more anti-aircraft guns. “Without air protection, we see the tragic consequences and destruction that Russian attacks can cause. That’s why we really need air defense,” Grynchuk said.