On March 22, sharing with VietNamNet newspaper, a leader of the Vietnam Gold Business Association said that as long as the State Bank abolishes the monopoly, regardless of whether it allows gold imports or not, gold prices will immediately decrease. up to 5 million VND per tael.
At that time, the difference between world gold price and domestic gold price stood at 14.6 million VND (calculated according to bank exchange rate). If according to the calculations of the Association’s leader above, the price of gold bars could decrease by about 3.5 million VND/tael, to 76.5 million VND/tael. The difference at that time was only about 10-11 million VND/tael.
On the contrary, many people believe that the gap between the domestic price of gold bars and the converted world price will not be reduced to the low level as expected.
Mr. Nguyen Tuan, who had many gold buying and selling activities during the hot market more than a decade ago, said that the difference depends mainly on the balance of supply and demand for this commodity.
“Once the supply does not improve, or does not improve much, the gap will still be large,” Mr. Nguyen Tuan noted.
In fact, many gold buyers and sellers have not yet bet on the possibility of a sharp decrease in the price of SJC gold bars. Gold buying activities are still active in the context of a large difference with the world’s converted price.
Early on March 29, the price of SJC gold bars still increased quite strongly according to world prices, adding 400,000 VND/tael at the beginning of the session before returning to 81 million VND – the closing price of the previous session. According to Bao Tin Minh Chau’s records, the number of customers buying on the morning of March 29 accounted for 55%, while the number of people coming to sell was 45%.
Mr. Nguyen Tuan analyzed that it is difficult for gold bar prices to fall deeply when demand is still greater than supply. Furthermore, world financial markets are still quite unstable. The world dollar hangs high, the overnight interest rate in the US is over 5%, while the overnight interest rate in Vietnam is low, only 0.28%/year on March 27.
It can be seen that the USD/VND exchange rate is still quite hot, the exchange rate on the banking system reached a new record: 24,980 VND/USD on the morning of March 29. On the free market, the exchange rate is still around 25,500 VND/USD.
With the current situation, according to Mr. Tuan, the State Bank has a lot of work to do, not only low credit growth, fluctuating commodity prices, but also the issue of escalating exchange rates and the stability of the financial system. national government.
Obviously, as the representative of the Vietnam Gold Business Association commented, if there is no fundamental solution, the domestic gold market will not have major changes, and the gold price may increase again according to world prices.
The government can consider solutions to import gold, however, we also need to review what the current advantages are. At the meeting of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, experts acknowledged the challenges of rising world commodity prices, potential inflation risks, USD interest rates and international USD exchange rates. At a high level.
Currently, world spot gold is at a historical peak of 2,233 USD/ounce and is generally predicted to be in an upward trend. The USD is forecast to weaken because the US cuts interest rates and countries reduce their dependence on this currency. A weak USD will push up gold prices. Countries also stepped up their gold purchases as the world became increasingly uncertain.
However, gold may also correct before entering a new increase.
If the State increases the supply of gold, the price of gold bars may decrease further. In the past, when Decree 24 was issued in 2012, in 2013, the State Bank of Vietnam continuously organized 76 gold bidding sessions with a total sale of nearly 70 tons. After a few months of auction, the gold price went from 43 million VND/tael to 36 million VND/tael sometimes.