President Nayib Bukele requests paid national leave for Tuesday the 18th due to the rain emergency

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a report announcing the end of El Niño in the region, and warns that the influence of the neutral phase is currently present, which implies that ocean temperature conditions are approaching normal.

However, La Niña is about to settle in the region, since according to the report it is expected to arrive between July and September. This phenomenon generates more rain, humidity and increases the possibility of developing tropical cyclones.

«The most recent forecasts from IRI indicate that La Niña may develop during July-September and then persist through the northern hemisphere winter. The forecast team also favors the development of La Niña during July-September because the rate of cooling has slowed since last month. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present. “La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% probability) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2024-25 (85% probability during November-January),” NOAA reported.

La Niña could also favor a drop in temperatures this year. According to the Copernicus Climate Change (C3S) there are possibilities that the heat wave trend will be attenuated if the La Niña climate phenomenon accelerates its arrival.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon characterized by the cooling of surface waters in the central and eastern part of the equatorial Pacific and by changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, which has an impact on temperature regimes. temperature and precipitation in various parts of the globe.

If the temperature of the waters of the Central Pacific Ocean is between -0.5 and 0.5 degrees, it is in neutral conditions, as the country is currently. If they fall below -0.5, La Niña is established and if they exceed 0.5 degrees, it is El Niño. “If cold water currents from South America to the Central Pacific are identified in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña phenomenon is established,” details Sidia Marinero, coordinator of the Climate and Agrometeorology Area of ​​the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN). ).

As these changes occur in the ocean, different atmospheric patterns and specific climate behaviors will be generated that will impact changes in temperatures and rainfall for the next season.

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