The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan informs about the tactical training of the special forces, which was held in several stages. It is specially emphasized that it took place in “difficult terrain and in severe climatic conditions”. It is understood that Azerbaijan has organized a training test of the special purpose military group in one of the mountainous areas of the border with Armenia.
Baku accompanied the extraordinary presidential elections with extensive propaganda of “possible terrorist attacks on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border”. France was specifically targeted, which allegedly carried out espionage against Azerbaijan in the direction of Jermuk through a high-ranking commander of the gendarmerie under the name of the EU observation mission in Armenia. Before that, Baku reported that the special purpose military group “conducted a combat exercise in residential conditions”.
Information is spreading more frequently that “a large amount of weapons were discovered” in various settlements of occupied Artsakh. Last fall, an information trick was used from Baku that “armed groups remained in the forest areas” of Artsakh. Once a news was even published that “a joint Russian-Azerbaijani patrol was attacked by a sniper” in Stepanakert.
After summarizing the voting results of the extraordinary elections, recirculating the topic of “tactical training” of the special purpose military group has only one implication. Ilham Aliyev makes it clear that the idea of continuing the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations based on the principle of excluding the use of force or the threat of force is unacceptable. Thus, the probability of border provocations not only does not decrease, but also obviously increases.
Aliyev announced the “new chapter of the history” of Azerbaijan. He promised that he would present his ideas of a “new national idea” within the framework of the presidential election campaign, which “will be decisive”. However, not only was there no debate, but also his personal remarks were not published. Apparently, Aliyev’s perception of the general geopolitical situation is that it is not the time to re-address the symbol of the “iron fist” to “national unity”.
The narrative of “expectations of constitutional changes” from Armenia prevails in the pro-government publications of Baku. That propaganda is combined with the internal Armenian debate, where the prevailing perception is that the ruling political force “is changing the constitution and the Declaration of Independence at the request of the Erdogan-Aliyev couple.” The periodic “exercises” of the special purpose military group on the border with Armenia are manifestations of a show of force.
Aliyev’s post-election message may also have a foreign political target. In that way, perhaps, he makes it clear that his re-election should not be questioned. Can the phone call of the President of the Council of Europe, Charles Michel, be considered a manifestation of pan-European assessment? Apparently, yes. Fundamental pressures will not be applied to Aliyev. When making decisions, one must proceed from the facts.
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