The number of new unemployment insurance claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending the 13th decreased by 16,000 to 187,000. This is the lowest level since September 2022, suggesting that job growth remained stable in January.See more
“Since the beginning of the year, things have reversed,” said Eric Breger, director of currency and precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull. “Fed officials are trying to push back on market expectations for a rate cut.”
The dollar index against six major currencies rose 0.14 percent to 103.47, marking the fifth consecutive day of growth, the longest since August last year.
According to CME FedWatch, there is a 57.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points in March. A week ago it was 73.2%.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Wednesday he was open to cutting interest rates earlier than previously expected if there was “convincing” evidence in the coming months that inflation is falling faster than expected.See more
The dollar/yen exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at 148.14 yen. At the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting next week, a decision is expected to be made to maintain the status quo of monetary easing.
The euro/dollar exchange rate fell 0.14% to 1.0866 dollars. According to the minutes of the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) held on 13 and 14 December last year, published by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the 18th, the members of the Governing Council were confident that inflation was falling towards the goal, but we did not want to raise interest rates because we recognized that there were a number of risks that justified keeping them at high standards.See more
The GBP/USD pair rose 0.17% to $1.269. In response to the day before’s announcement that the rate of increase in the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) would accelerate for the first time in 10 months in December, the Bank of England is expected to British) will begin cutting interest rates at a later date. compared to other major central banks.
The cryptoasset (virtual currency) Bitcoin fell 3.09% to $41,318.
U.S. bond yields fell overnight, with some flight to quality fueled by concerns that Pakistan’s retaliatory attack on Iran would exacerbate conflict in the Middle East.
However, on the 18th the US Department of Labor announced that the number of new unemployment insurance claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending the 13th decreased by 16,000 to 187,000, the lowest level since September 2022 As a result, the bearish bias in the US Treasury bond market prevailed once again this week.See more
Thomas Hayes, president of Great Hill Capital, said this “supports the case that interest rate cuts could begin in June rather than March.” However, looking at the big picture, inflation is decreasing and “interest rates will probably be cut before the end of the year. The question is how many.”
In the short-term interest rate futures market on the 18th there was a 55% chance that interest rates would be cut in March. Last week it was at 70%. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate cut starting in May is 46%, compared to 30% last week.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic said Thursday he would be willing to cut interest rates sooner than expected if there was “convincing” evidence in the coming months that inflation is falling faster than expected.See more
The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose 4 basis points (bp) to 4.144%. The two-year bond yield remained unchanged at 4.356%.
The yield gap between the 2-year and 10-year bonds was -21.7 basis points.
Demand for the $18 billion 10-year Treasury inflation-protected bond (TIPS) auction is strong. The yield on the highest bid was 1.81%, more than 2 basis points lower than the expected yield when the bids expired.
The bid ratio was 2.62 times, higher than the annual average of 2.44 times. The success rate through indirect offers was 79%, higher than the annual average of 76%.
After the auction outcome, the 10-year TIPS yield fell to 1.804%. The break-even inflation rate (BEI), which is the difference in yields between TIPS and regular government bonds and indicates expected inflation, is 2.34% for 10-year bonds. At the end of last year it was 2.174%.
US stocks continued to fall as expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve eased.
The medical insurance giant Humana (HUM.N), opens a new profile, falls by 8%. The company announced that medical insurance costs in the fourth quarter of 2023 are expected to exceed previous estimates. Regional bank Keycorp (KEY.N), opens new tab, loses 4.6 points. The company was unhappy with the decline in profits in the fourth quarter.
Weekly inventory statistics released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week, far exceeding market expectations for a decline of 300,000 barrels. After the announcement, expectations of a tightening of supply and demand grew, leading to an increase in purchases.
Previously, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in its monthly report released on the 18th that oil demand in 2024 is expected to increase by 1.24 million barrels per day, an upward revision of 180,000 barrels per day. day compared to initial forecasts.
In its monthly report released the day before, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 unchanged, but forecast that oil demand will increase by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025 compared to the previous year. due to increased demand from China and other countries. Both oil-consuming and oil-producing countries have revised their forecasts upwards, spreading optimism about the future of global energy demand.
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2024-01-18 22:42:00
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