Netanyahu in the US: How could Biden’s withdrawal affect the Israeli leader’s visit?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the United States this week. He is under pressure from both the Israelis and the U.S. administration to end the war in Gaza. So how could the political turmoil in Washington shape that visit and future relations?

Netanyahu will meet with US President Joe Biden if he recovers from Covid-19. He will also address a joint session of Congress, becoming the only foreign leader to do so for the fourth time.

The visit offers Netanyahu an opportunity to reengage with Washington after months of tension between the two countries’ administrations and to reassure Israelis that relations with their most important ally remain good.

However, with Biden withdrawing his candidacy in the presidential elections, political uncertainties around the White House have come to the forefront and interest in Netanyahu’s visit has likely waned.

By the time his plane took off, Netanyahu had faced unwanted attention in Israel, where protesters were demanding he stay in the country and focus on negotiating a ceasefire with Hamas that would free Israeli hostages.

“Until he gets the deal on the table, I don’t understand how he gets up and flies across the Atlantic to address the American political chaos,” said Lee Siegal, a family member of a hostage who attended the demonstration.

Lee Siegal’s brother Keith, 65, is being held hostage in Gaza.

According to Siegal, the trip is a political move as Netanyahu has not stopped being an “obstacle” and signed the ceasefire agreement.

There is a widespread belief that Netanyahu is slowing down the process for his own political gain, having angered his negotiators by imposing new conditions on talks that had recently appeared to be making progress.

The prime minister is accused of bowing to pressure from two far-right ministers who threatened to bring down his government if he made concessions to Hamas.

Those perceptions have added to frustrations at the White House, which has expressed optimism that talks could reach a final resolution and a deal.

Biden, one of the most pro-Israel presidents and a self-described Zionist, was praised by Israelis for his stance and support following the Hamas attacks on October 7.

But he later expressed concern about the cost of Netanyahu’s demand for an “all-out victory” against Hamas in Gaza.

The White House is angry with Netanyahu for rejecting a post-war solution that includes a Palestinian state and resisting calls to protect Palestinian civilians and increase aid flows.

The Biden administration is also facing backlash at home over the rising death toll in Gaza and fears the conflict could spread to the region.

As Joe Biden’s presidency languishes in the maelstrom of debate over his abilities, experts say there is less room to keep pressure on the Israeli prime minister.

However, Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister, said that the decision to withdraw from the race may have strengthened Biden’s hand in terms of putting pressure on Netanyahu.

“He’s not a lame duck on foreign policy, he’s more independent in a way (because) he doesn’t have to take into account any influence on the electorate,” Barak told the BBC.

“He probably has a freer hand to do what really needs to be done with respect to Israel.”

Barak, who described Congress’s invitation to Netanyahu to speak as a “mistake,” noted that many Israelis blame him for the policy errors that allowed the Hamas attack to take place, and that three out of four have called for his resignation:

“This man does not represent Israel. He has lost the trust of the Israelis. The fact that the American Congress is inviting Netanyahu to appear to save us sends the wrong signal to the Israelis and probably the wrong signal to Netanyahu himself.”

Netanyahu insists that the military pressure must continue, believing that Hamas has been significantly weakened militarily.

In his statements before leaving Israel, he said that this would be the tone of his meeting with President Biden:

“This will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how we can advance goals that are important to both countries in the coming months. These goals include securing the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the axis of terror of Iran and its proxies, and ensuring the safe return of all Israeli citizens to their homes in the north and south.”

Netanyahu is expected to carry the same message to Congress and “try to solidify the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel.”

But Netanyahu’s policies have divided bipartisan support in Congress, with Republicans rallying behind him and criticism from Democrats increasing.

Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democratic majority in the US Senate, caused a minor earthquake in Washington when he stood up in the chamber and said that Netanyahu was one of the obstacles to a lasting peace with the Palestinians.

“I hope the Prime Minister understands the concerns of many members of Congress and addresses them,” former US Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides told the BBC over the weekend.

This includes “expressing that the fight is with Hamas, not the Palestinian people, and humanitarian issues.”

That’s the message Kamala Harris will deliver if she becomes the Democratic nominee.

There will be no change in US policy: a commitment to Israel’s security, an end to the conflict in Gaza, and a future plan based on a regional peace with the Arab states.

However, there may be a difference in tone.

Harris does not share Biden’s long history or emotional ties to Israel. Mick Mulroy, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, said Harris comes from a different generation and “may be closer to the sentiments of the younger elements of the Democratic Party.”

According to Mulroy, this is a stance that “more likely includes restrictions on arms and ammunition being sent from the United States” for use in Gaza.

Netanyahu could use the visit to address the Iranian threat, which is much easier to deal with than the Gaza disputes, especially after the recent tensions with the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.

But according to Tal Shalev, diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Walla News, Netanyahu’s real target audience is within the country.

Shalev believes that he wants to revive his image as “Mr. America” ​​as the person who can best present Israel to the United States and repair his image that was shaken by the October 7 attacks:

“When he goes to the US and speaks to Congress or gives a press conference at the White House, for his base it means ‘the old Bibi is back.’ This is not the failed Bibi who was responsible for October 7. This is the old Bibi who went to Congress and got a standing ovation.”

It also gives him an opportunity to maintain his connections with former President Donald Trump at a time of major political volatility in Washington.

According to Shalev, “Netanyahu wants President Trump to win and he wants to make sure he is on good terms with President Trump before the election.”

There is a widespread view that Netanyahu is playing for time and hopes that if Trump wins, the pressure he is facing from the Biden administration will ease somewhat.

“There is an almost universal perception that Netanyahu is keen on this, assuming that if Trump wins, he can do whatever he wants,” according to Michael Koplow of Israel’s Policy Forum.

“There is no Biden pressuring him on the ceasefire or on the West Bank settlements and settler violence. There are many reasons to doubt this reading of the situation in a Trump restoration, but Netanyahu probably believes it.”

The question is whether that pressure will ease with Biden dropping out of the presidential race, or whether he will actually use his final months in office to focus on ending the Gaza war.