NATO leaders arrive for summit in Washington

WASHINGTON (AP) — NATO leaders are meeting this week for a summit marking the 75th anniversary of the military alliance, which has never been larger or more focused but also faces potentially existential threats from without and within.

If Russia’s war in Ukraine, the challenges posed by an increasingly aggressive China and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza were not enough, the commitment of some key members to defend their allies is being called into question.

There is deep uncertainty about US President Joe Biden’s ability to beat his predecessor, NATO-sceptic Donald Trump, in November to lead the alliance’s most powerful member.

While Biden’s political woes raise concerns at home and abroad, countries across Europe face their own problems with the rise of far-right populism — particularly in France and Hungary — threatening what has been a key pillar of security and stability since World War II.

Here’s what to look out for at the three-day summit:

Eyes on Biden

Reeling from his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate, and struggling to hold his re-election campaign together, Biden says people should look to his interactions at the NATO summit as evidence that he is still strong and vigorous enough to lead.

Diplomats and analysts say they will continue to monitor developments closely, although NATO leaders accept they have no control over the U.S. election and are unlikely to intervene publicly.

“The outcome of the November election is of enormous importance to NATO, and virtually all of the alliance’s heads of state and government feel the same way, even if they refuse to discuss it,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

The idea of ​​Trump returning to the White House has alarmed many in Europe, who fear he could scale back U.S. commitments to NATO or Ukraine, or cancel them altogether.

“There is nothing Biden’s NATO counterparts can do to affect that outcome, so they find themselves in the awkward position of being observers to a process that is fundamental to the alliance but over which they have no control,” Rathke added.

Biden, who has taken credit for strengthening NATO and standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said his confidence and competence would be on display.

But he will be under tremendous pressure to quell growing concerns that he is not up to the job, either as de facto NATO chief or as commander in chief of the alliance’s most important member.

“The unpredictability of what (Trump) could do and how quickly he could do it in office has people nervous,” Rathke said. “It would be a significant jolt to NATO if he won.”

Not everything revolves around Joe

While the spotlight will be on Biden, 31 other leaders have a say in NATO decision-making. The summit will be British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first appearance on the world stage, just days after winning a resounding election victory.

While Starmer has expressed strong continued support for both NATO and Ukraine, gains made by far-right parties, as well as left-wing groups — which oppose Western support for Israel’s war in Gaza — risk diluting London’s influence.

More worrying is the turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s government faces political uncertainty after left-wing parties united to beat a rising far right in legislative elections but still failed to win a majority in parliament. The NATO-sceptical far-right party significantly increased the number of seats it holds.

And there are Hungary and Turkey, the two NATO members that resisted to the very end allowing the newest members, Finland and Sweden, to join the alliance. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán sounded alarm bells by visiting Russia last week for talks with Putin, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains good relations with the Kremlin.

The future of NATO

In many ways, the alliance has never seemed stronger. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO has gained those two members, bringing the total to 32. At the same time, the Central and Eastern European members closest to Russia’s borders — the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic — have increased their support for Ukraine and NATO as an institution.

But NATO is fragile. Its policies must be adopted by unanimous consensus, and political turmoil in capitals hampers future decision-making. NATO leaders are expected to once again reaffirm their “open door” policy, meaning membership is open to any country that meets the requirements. But Ukraine will not receive the long-awaited invitation this week.

“In some ways, this NATO summit comes at the best and worst time. The best time, in the sense that the alliance knows what its purpose is,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan nonprofit that promotes ideas to solve global challenges.

“But it is also one of the worst times, obviously because of the war in Ukraine, the challenges of increasing European defense spending and concerns about the reliability of the United States,” he added.

Defense spending has been one of Trump’s biggest complaints about NATO, and he has repeatedly said the United States will not defend countries that fail to meet an agreed target of spending 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense.

Military alliance officials have pushed for a significant increase (to 23) in the number of allies that meet that commitment. Several more members are expected to declare they will meet that standard during the summit.

Maintaining support for Ukraine

Many NATO allies signed their own security agreements with Ukraine last year to provide long-term guarantees of assistance to kyiv to defend itself against Russia and prevent possible future attacks.

Russia has made significant progress on the battlefield in recent months during US Congressional delays in approving its military aid. These have been overcome and a new multi-billion dollar package is expected to be announced this week.

But Ukraine’s goal is to join NATO, which would put it under the alliance’s Article 5 collective security umbrella, which obliges other members to come to its defense if any of them is attacked.

Membership is highly unlikely as long as the conflict continues. However, the allies plan to present Ukraine with a “bridge” to membership that would set out the next steps.

Meanwhile, countries are expected to pledge new military and economic support. Billions of dollars have already been sent to Ukraine and officials say more is coming. Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing NATO secretary general, said Friday that contributions of about $43 billion a year should be the basis for moving forward.

China must not be forgotten

NATO allies are also focused on the threats posed by China, including persistent disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing doubt in democratic systems. And they have repeatedly complained that Chinese sales of some tools and technology have allowed Moscow to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base to wage war in Ukraine.

The United States, in particular, has criticized China for pursuing policies that threaten European security as Beijing seeks broader trade relations with European countries.

For the third year in a row, leaders or senior officials from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will attend the NATO summit to discuss how to address Chinese threats in the South China Sea and beyond.