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2024-08-04 00:48:13
The investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS) predicted that Argentine inflation will reach 28.8% in 2025, marking a strong difference with the IMF forecast of 45%, and highlighted the fiscal adjustment undertaken by the Government of Javier Miley.
According to the updated “Key Economic Forecast” report, the forecast improves projections compared to last March’s report, when Morgan Stanley predicted a CPI of 31.6%. In addition, according to the updated forecast, Argentina’s GDP will grow next year by 4.4% vs. the 3.6% estimated in the previous measurement.
It also modified its projections for the end of the current economic year. It estimated that accumulated inflation in 2024 will be 122% compared to the 207.7% estimated last March.
However, this percentage is above the objectives set by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputohe told representatives of various stock brokerage firms. The official not only assured that inflation this month will be at its lowest level so far this year – he predicts an index of around 3.7% – but that in September the CPI will fluctuate between 0% and 1%, which is well below the Morgan Stanley estimate.
Parallel dollars: what values are expected for August and what will happen with the reserves
Another correction made by Morgan Stanley indicates that GDP will fall by -3.6% by the end of 2024. The same agent’s report had indicated in March that the economy would fall by -3.3%, which means that expectations worsened.
Finally, Morgan Stanley forecast the price of the dollar. For 2024, it estimated an official exchange rate of $1,207, in line with the official devaluation of 2% planned by the government itself. Meanwhile, for 2025, it estimated the official dollar at $1,623.
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