ANP
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 1.58pm
In 2050, the Netherlands will be busier, grayer and more diverse than now, and there is a need for moderation of migration and better distribution of limited space. The state committee for demographic development 2050 came to these conclusions.
More guidance is needed, according to the committee, because the Netherlands is one of the countries with the strongest population growth in Europe and also one of the most densely populated countries, where above all the rate of population growth poses problems.
“Choose moderate growth that doesn’t require too much,” explains the committee’s Richard van Zwol. “Growth that keeps the economy afloat and therefore ensures that education, healthcare and housing are accessible to all.”
Clear choices
The committee, whose members include scientists Paul Scheffer and Monika Sie Dhian Ho and politicians Marco Pastors and Tamara van Ark, advises politicians to focus more on which migrant workers they are attracted to.
Furthermore, to address problems arising from simultaneous population growth and aging, all sorts of other buttons can be pushed: ranging from greater investment in the integration of newcomers to digitalisation in healthcare and housing , more forms of community life.
According to Van Zwol, the Netherlands must prevent population decline. “Contraction harms the economy and leaves no room for desired migration. The contraction also worsens the aging population. We also simply need the economy to be able to pay for education, healthcare and housing.”
NOS/CBS
The committee was established by the cabinet in July 2022 because there was a need for guidance on how to handle demographic issues such as aging and migration, an issue on which the Rutte IV cabinet was strongly divided. Ultimately, the government fell due to a conflict over limiting asylum immigration.
The committee now recommends working with so-called “target values” for population growth and looking beyond a cabinet mandate. Moderate growth to 19 or 20 million people by 2050 would be ideal, but to get there politicians must make clear choices quickly.
Unpredictable migration
In the nearly 400-page report, which discusses in detail the history and science of population development, these choices are elaborated only to a limited extent. It contains many options already mentioned in previous reports.
The commission goes further with proposals covering limiting low-quality labor migration, slowing labor migration from new EU countries and a target figure for net migration.
The commission emphasizes that steering migration is only possible to a limited extent. While aging is a trend that is sure to continue, migration is more unpredictable. According to the committee, even concrete goals or statements about when the Netherlands will be “full” are not useful, because technology and other developments can change all this. The Advisory Council on Migration had previously stated that a target value for asylum migration is not desirable, but perhaps for labor migration.
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NOS/CBS
It is complicated to limit migration for humanitarian reasons, this commission also writes. However, such a target value, combined with consideration of population density, can help, for example, in discussions with the European Union on the distribution of asylum migrants. Furthermore, most of the commission’s proposals on immigration are aimed at labor migration.
Uncontrolled growth
The committee says it assumes that in 2050, 26 to 49 percent of the Dutch population will be made up of first- and second-generation migrants. Now it’s at 25%. Population growth is desirable because the alternative, contraction or stagnation, would also increase existing problems with aging and labor shortages and impede economic growth.
On the contrary, uncontrolled growth also brings problems: for example, rapid population growth is already causing problems with housing, social cohesion, for example in neighborhoods where migrant workers who have only been in the Netherlands for a short time live together, and increasing pressure on migrant workers who have only been in the Netherlands for a short time structures such as education and integration support.
The committee contradicts the often held notion that aging problems can be solved through labor migration: migration actually puts pressure on services such as education and care, and migrants themselves age later.
Different political constellation
The report is presented in a different political context than the one in which the commission was born. The political parties who are now sitting around the table to see if they can form a new cabinet are all in favor of limiting migration. However, the question remains whether they will be willing to adopt all of the commission’s recommendations.
The NSC’s Pieter Omtzigt will likely approve of the commission’s goal. The advice boils down to what he also supports: aiming for a moderate migratory balance. The suggestion to choose more carefully which courses for international students are taught in English will also be welcomed.
But other recommendations, such as investing in jobs and support in other countries, will likely receive less attention. According to the committee, this is necessary to support reception in the region, so that migratory pressure decreases. But the VVD wants to drastically cut development aid and the PVV even wants to eliminate it altogether.
2024-01-15 12:58:32
#moderate #migration #prevent #population #decline