“The speed of the drone is about 185 km per hour, so it flies for about eight hours, whereas the cruise missiles only fly for two hours and the ballistic missile about 12 or 13 minutes. That is, they timed it in such a way that they first sent a wave of those shahids, then they sent missiles with a flat flight path and then ballistic missiles so that the impact was synchronized at one moment,” Foltyn explained the tactics of the night attack of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
An embarrassment to Iran and a financial burden to Israel
But only a fraction of the missiles landed on Israeli soil. According to Foltýn, Iran thus stole the shame because, despite such a massive attack, it did not overcome Israel’s defense systems. The Iron Dome, as the system is called, did protect the people of Israel, but one such attack costs the state coffers in the amount of around 31 billion crowns. But it should not significantly weaken the country.
“Israel can afford it. However, if Iran were to repeat such attacks in this quantity several times, then of course it would already have an effect on the stockpile of missiles for anti-aircraft systems.” Foltýn said in the studio. “Both Ukraine and Israel need missiles for the air defense system. This means that if the conflict were to intensify and Israel’s consumption would increase, then of course these are the same means that Ukraine might need, for example the Patriot systems,” the military analyst warned.
Israel has no room for strong retaliation next to the conflict in Gaza
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is therefore extremely convenient for Russia. In addition, it has long-term good relations with Tehran. “The aid package for Ukraine is the same package that also includes aid for Israel, that is, if at this moment the United States really gets so-called angry and finally approves the package, it will help both Ukraine and Israel, the capacity of the United States they have” added Foltýn to the context of the role of the United States.
According to the analyst, a strong blow from Israel cannot be expected. For the past 6 months, the country has been directing its forces to Gaza, where it is fighting the terrorist movement Hamas. It, like the civilians in the Gaza Strip, is suited to Saturday’s attack. The situation to the West of Israel calmed down for a while when Israel moved part of its soldiers. “Logically, of course, this is a relief for Hamas, because even the Israeli army cannot afford long-term intensive operations in Gaza and at the same time a regional conflict with Hezbollah in the north,” Foltýn indicated future developments.
According to the information so far, it is not yet clear how Israel will react to the attack by Iran. But the analyst shared his personal view of the situation: “The retaliation has to come somehow, because we are in the Middle East environment. That is, here losing face means that you become a victim, who loses face and becomes weaker and attracts a potential aggressor. That strike could be, shall we say, limited – in the form of increased strikes on the Islamist movement Hezbollah, which controls Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. There, the potential for escalation would not be very high, because the strikes have been going on for some time, and in principle, both sides do not see it as, let’s say, a declaration of war.”
