Mexico’s financial market worsens its GDP growth and inflation forecasts

MADRID (EUROPA PRESS).- Mexico’s financial market, made up of various economists and analysts in the country, has revised downwards its forecast for the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, both for 2024 and 2025, and now expects expansion to be 1.8% this year and 1.59% next year, compared to the 2% and 1.68% it previously estimated, respectively.

Regarding the probability of a decrease in GDP level in any of the upcoming quarters compared to the previous quarter, this has increased compared to the previous month for the second quarter of 2024 and 2025, while it decreased for the third and fourth quarters of 2024, as well as for the first quarter of 2025.

As for inflation, analysts have also worsened their estimates, expecting it to rise to 4.65% year-on-year at the end of 2024 and 3.85% in 2025.

These figures contrast with the 4.25% and 3.81% estimated by the market last June.

He #Bank of Mexico The survey on expectations of private sector economics specialists for July 2024 was released. You can consult it here: pic.twitter.com/HvXSykUW2D

— Bank of Mexico (@Banxico) August 1, 2024

Obstacles to growth

Regarding the factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth in the next six months, specialists consider that, at a general level, the main elements are associated with governance (58%) and internal economic conditions (16%).

The proportion of experts who believe that the business climate will worsen in the next six months has increased compared to the June survey and is the most prevalent this time. No analyst believes that the business climate will improve in the next six months.

The percentage of analysts who are unsure about the current investment climate has decreased compared to the previous survey.

On the other hand, the fraction of specialists who consider that it is a bad time to invest increased compared to the previous month and is the predominant one this time.

The survey on the expectations of private sector economics specialists released by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) can be consulted at the following address: link.