José Arista points out that the growth observed in May, higher than expected, allows them to make this projection.
The Minister of Economy and Finance, José Arista, said that the Peruvian economy could grow more than 3.1% this year after the expansion registered in May, exceeding expectations.
“Our projection is around 3.1% and we agree with the Central Reserve Bank, but, particularly internally, we are confident that this growth will be a few points higher,” he said in statements to TV Perú.
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Arista highlighted that the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in May, at 5.04%, was the second highest of the year and of the last three years. This result surprised most private economic agents.
“We have had a growth of 5.04% in May, which is the second highest after April (5.28%) and after almost three years, that is, 34 months in which we did not grow at a significant rate,” he said.
Ranking of economic forecasts
Arista commented that economic forecasters often have errors of a few tenths. Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) plans to rank all entities that make forecasts to assess their errors. However, each entity has different methodologies and indicators of greater confidence.
“For example, BBVA has a program called Big Data, so they make their projections based on this. The Central Reserve Bank (BCR), apart from looking at the mining data, makes its analysis based on surveys it carries out. We look at free indicators such as electricity, consumption, billing, collection; so each one has its own methodology,” he commented.
Even growth in May
The head of the MEF highlighted that economic growth in May was more uniform in most productive sectors, unlike the figure for April.
“This growth in May is more uniform, because April showed some leading sectors and others that lagged behind, but in May I was pleasantly surprised by the growth of all sectors in an even manner, except for the financial area, which fell,” he said.
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2024-07-21 10:51:54