2
2024-07-20 15:49:30
CARACAS, Venezuela.- The presidential election in Venezuela is reaching its final stretch, on the way to voting next week. The constant, after a turbulent campaign, has been the candidacy for reelection of the president Nicolas Maduro and the fact that the opposition has had to navigate a terrain of uncertainty. For the first time in years, electoral observers from the Carter Center and the United Nations were invited to monitor the elections.
There are 10 presidential candidates. Maduro’s main rival is Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutiawho represents the majority opposition, whose candidacy emerged after the Supreme Court of Justice ratified the disqualification imposed on Maria Corina Machado to run for elected office.
In October 2023, the former deputy had won the primary elections organized by most of the factors opposed to the Government with 92% of the votes.
Machado’s endorsement of González Urrutia, a low-profile diplomat who worked for the Unitary Platform, the alliance of the main opposition parties, gave him a boost in the polls, according to data from the American network CNN.
The most recent study by ORC Consultores, as of July, shows that the candidate of the opposition majority has 59.68% of the voting intention among those surveyed, while Maduro is second among those surveyed with 14.64%.
Risks of Chavismo
That 45% difference in the survey indicates what analysts have been seeing during the campaign: Chavismo seems to be closer than ever to losing the Executive Power, which it reached 25 years ago. The extensive economic crisis, the unity of the opposition despite the obstacles to the registration of its candidates (in addition to the disqualification of Machado, Corina Yoris was unable to register his candidacy) and a message that promises to create conditions for Venezuelan families in the diaspora to reunite – the UN estimates that there are more than 7.7 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants around the world – has provoked support that has not been seen in a quarter of a century for those opposed to the government.
In the survey, 55.2% of people consider themselves sympathetic to the opposition, compared to 11.4% who identify themselves as being in the Chavista spectrum.
“Everything indicates that the opposition is going to win by a very wide margin,” he said. Benigno Alarcon, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB). Alarcón says that if participation is high – close to 80% – the difference could be more than 30 points.
According to Marino J. Gonzalezprofessor at the Simon Bolivar University of Venezuela, it is evident that there is “a great willingness among Venezuelans to exercise their right to vote.” The ORC Consultores survey indicates that 37.29% of those surveyed are sure they will vote. Only 5.78% of those surveyed say they will not vote.
The survey also shows that there is optimism about the election: 69% of those interviewed feel hopeful.
Maduro insulted Milei and linked him to a plan to boycott the elections in Venezuela
“It is a difficult difference to hide,” says Alarcón, “and I think the government is preparing for a scenario where it knows it could lose the election and that any attempt to deny the real result will lead to an escalation of the conflict.”
That is why, says Alarcón, Maduro “tries to intimidate the population so that they do not dare to do so.”
This week, the president said there was a possibility of a “bloodbath” if his supporters did not guarantee a Chavista victory in the July 28 elections.
Related
previous post
Governor Thomas Stelzer awarded certificate for OÖVP courses
– 2024-07-20 15:35:45