Most experts did not expect this result of the parliamentary elections in France. The National Association won the first round and was generally expected to win the second round as well. But the other French parties they were horrified by this idea and agreed on the formation of the so-called Republican Frontwhich involved parties withdrawing their third-place candidates in many constituencies to increase the chance of victory for the remaining candidates.
This tactic worked for the Republican Front. The far-right National Association finished third in the second round with 143 mandates, behind the other alliance Spolu, which supports Macron and which won 163 mandates. The victory was claimed by the left-wing New People’s Front with a gain of 182 mandates – in the first round, however, she received only 32 of them.
Immediately after the announcement of the results, the French took to the streets to celebrate, setting off fireworks over Paris… Le Pen, a long-term controversial figure in French politics, will not have decisive power.
But no one will have it here. The National Assembly will be divided into three similarly sized camps thanks to the results, with none of them winning the necessary 289 seats to form a government. Add to that the fact that Macron is very weakened after his gamble of dissolving parliament, The National Assembly will be more fragmented than ever.
The Winning Left: Five Very Different Parties
What will now follow is a long period of instability as three camps, all with conflicting visions of where France should be headed, they will have to immerse themselves in negotiations for the formation of a possible coalition.
Perhaps they could come to an agreement if each of the camps were truly united, but a question mark hangs over the victorious New People’s Front. It is an alliance of five different left-wing parties, from communists to greens to center-left parties. It will be difficult for them to speak with one voice. In addition, France has experience of similar alliances breaking up in the past – the last time in 2022 left-wing parties in France formed a single bloc, they soon broke up due to differences of opinion.
The main challenge for the New People’s Front will not be to unite against the extreme right, that has already been achieved, but agree internally on behalf of the new prime minister and with whom and under what conditions she will be willing to cooperate.
Although the head of the National Association, Jordan Bardella, was visibly disappointed that his party did not win – he attributes it to the plan of the left and Macron to withdraw more than 200 candidates – but realistically, you don’t have to be disappointed. Namely Marine Le Pen, for whom this is the biggest parliamentary success in many years. While the National Association won 8 mandates in 2017 and 89 mandates in 2022, it now has almost twice as many.
What about supporting Ukraine?
According to CNN, due to parliamentary chaos there is no hope that the country will adopt major reforms in the near future, will maximally push individual laws through ad hoc alliances.
It is also unclear how this situation will affect French support for Ukraine. Macron is a big supporter of the attacked country and speaks for the continuation of arms deliveries, but Marine Le Pen she did not want Kiev to use French-made long-range weapons and strongly opposed sending French troops to Ukraine. The opinion of the left on the topic of Ukraine is not clear, rather they do not talk about the war.
Macron’s centrists did not fare so badly as a result, they lost “only” 100 MPs, which is much better than the polls predicted. However, the French president will no longer be as strong and will have to answer more to the National Assembly. So did the big gamble he took after the European elections pay off? The far right is defeated, but the price is high. Chaos is likely to reign in France, and that’s just before the country hosts the Summer Olympics.