Low turnout, 3 conservative candidates and one moderate: Iran elects a president

More than 61 million Iranians will be able to go out and vote today to choose the new president of the Islamic Republic, who will replace the previous president Ibrahim Raisi, who was killed last month in a helicopter crash.

The elections are not expected to bring about a significant change in the policies of the Islamic Republic, but the leader who succeeds Raisi may also be the one who will influence the nature of the government after the supreme leader, the 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been at the head of the country since 1989.

It’s all about turnout

Voter turnout has decreased in recent years, due to the growing silent opposition of young people to the regime. Only 48% voted in the presidential elections 3 years ago, and only 41% participated in the parliamentary elections 3 months ago.

“The durability, strength, honor and reputation of the Islamic Republic depends on the presence of the people,” Khamenei told state television today after casting his vote. “A high voter turnout is a clear necessity.” Khamenei deals a lot with calling on Iranians to go out and vote, with the aim of presenting a legitimate and democratic regime, especially in light of the hijab protests last year, the country’s precarious economic situation and difficult relations with the West.

Preliminary results for the vote are expected to be received as early as tomorrow afternoon, but the final results after the end of the manual counting of tens of millions of ballots, are expected to be received only during Sunday. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, a second round of elections between the top two candidates is expected in a week.

Three devout conservatives and one “moderate” candidate

Three of the candidates are devout conservatives who align with the supreme leader, and each of them is expected to continue Raisi’s path. Another candidate is considered a reformer and more moderate, but was nevertheless approved by the “Guardian Council”, the religious-constitutional council that approves candidates for elections.

The former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Bakr Kalibaf, is one of the leading candidates, although no polls are conducted in Iran. But since he also held the position of Speaker of the Parliament, he is expected to be portrayed as a worthy leader. Klibauf represents a conservative line, and has previously worked with the supreme leader.

Saeed Jalili served four years in Khamenei’s office, and managed the negotiations on the issue of the nuclear deal with the United States, the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency. He also presents a conservative line and as mentioned previously worked with the supreme leader.

The only cleric in the race, Mustafa Pourmohammadi served as interior minister during the first term of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who served from 2005 to 2008. Pourmohammadi was accused by human rights organizations of taking part in hundreds of executions of political prisoners in 1988.

Massoud Pazhkian is the only moderate candidate approved by the Guardian Council and supported by the pro-reform camp. Pazhkian, a doctor by profession and a member of parliament of Azeri origin, served as health minister in Khatami’s government from 2001 to 2005. He will hope to attract millions who did not turn out to vote in the previous elections, and are looking for someone to reform the country’s domestic and foreign policies.