If French President Emmanuel Macron caused a political earthquake and took everyone by surprise by dissolving parliament and calling early legislative elections, he was also surprised, analysts say, by something he definitely did not imagine: that the left, deeply divided, would be able to unite again so quickly.
The New Popular Front, created the day after the dissolution of the French parliament and which unites left-wing parties in France, has undermined the centrist Macron’s strategy and could end up making it even easier for the radical right of Marine Le Pen, who is leading the opinion polls, to win.
The president was counting on this electorate from the left-wing parties to keep his deputies and block the expansion of Le Pen, who for the first time has a real chance of reaching government.
The French leader, experts say, has signaled in speeches that the left would be contributing to the victory of Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in the legislative elections.
It is no wonder that Macron has reserved his harshest criticisms precisely for the left-wing alliance, which displeases even his own supporters.
“By uniting for the legislative elections in France, the left sabotaged Macron’s plan,” Thomás Zicman de Barros, a researcher at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po University in Paris, told BBC News Brasil.
Experts estimate that the left has no interest, in strategic terms, in allying itself with the weakened and criticized circle of support of the French president, especially after Macron has prioritized issues contrary to the agenda of the left-wing parties by promoting controversial reforms, such as the pension reform.
“What would be the interest for the left in associating with Macron who has barely reached out to these parties?” asks Barros.
“The alliance of the left is a fatal blow to Macron. He has based his entire strategy on this disunity,” adds Gaspard Estrada, director of the Latin American Political Observatory at Sciences Po.
The left had already come together in the 2022 legislative elections in France, with the so-called Nupes, but the alliance had problems early on and disintegrated last year.
European Parliament
In the elections for the European Parliament, on June 9, socialists, ecologists, communists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France, considered radical left, presented different candidacies.
It was after the result of this European vote that ended up led by Le Pen’s radical right that Macron dissolved the French Parliament, although he was not obliged to do so.
Le Pen’s party had more than double the number of votes obtained by Macron’s Renaissance party.
The victory of the radical right was seen by analysts as a reaction by the electorate to migration policies, the high cost of environmental reforms and high inflation.
Within 24 hours, after the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of legislative elections, the left came together.
According to recent polls, the far-right National Rally is leading with 36% and could obtain a relative majority in these legislative elections.
But a survey by the Elabe institute released this Friday (28/6), indicates that National Reunion and its allies (part of the moderate right that joined Le Pen, causing the split in the Republican party) could already obtain 289 seats necessary to guarantee an absolute majority.
This would allow Reunião Nacional to triple the current number of seats in parliament, 88.
However, other polls suggest that Le Pen’s party alone is likely to win between 220 and 260 seats, allowing only a relative majority.
The New Popular Front, with 29%, could end up with between 190 and 210 seats, compared to 149 currently held by left-wing parties.
To obtain an absolute majority, a minimum of 289 seats is required, leaving, according to these polls, just over 100 seats to be held by the president’s Renaissance, together with his allies, which could make Macron’s plans to remain in full command of France unfeasible.
Advance from the left
The advance of the left is important, but not as significant as the collapse of President Macron’s supporting coalition, Ensemble! (Together), which could lose up to two-thirds of its deputies.
With 21% of voting intentions, according to the Ifop institute, the Macronist center, led by his Renaissance party, would have between 75 and 110 seats, compared to 250 for the presidential majority before the dissolution, which could make Macron’s plans to remain in full command of France unfeasible.
He may be forced to live in a cohabitation government sharing power with a prime minister from a party that opposes him and with a divided Chamber, without a stable majority if the extreme right does not obtain an absolute majority. In this case, there will be a fragmentation of national representation.
Macron’s own supporters asked him to keep a low profile in this campaign and the Ensemble candidates! Nor did they put the president’s face on their kits for fear of being rejected due to the French leader’s unpopularity.
According to Gaspard Estrada, Macron believed that his party would reach the second round of the legislative elections in several electoral zones thanks to the disunity of the left.
In this way, it could repeat what it has been doing since 2017, presenting itself as the only one capable of combating the radical right and thus gaining, once again, the support of the left in the final vote, as occurred in the 2022 presidential elections.
“But Macron did not discuss this with the left before dissolving the Assembly,” the political scientist jokes.
Second round
Unlike many countries, legislative elections in France have two rounds. It is possible to have a final vote with three or more candidates.
To reach the second round, it is necessary to have 12.5% of the votes cast by registered voters. The greater the participation of the electorate, the chances of more candidates reaching the second round increase.
Research estimates that the turnout rate for the first round this Sunday (30/6) will be 66%, much higher than that of the 2022 legislative elections, which was 49%.
Candidates with fewer votes may withdraw from the second round to, for example, face off against Reunião Nacional, opening the way for candidates with more potential.
According to analysts, this could actually happen, but perhaps not to the extent imagined by the president, since his party now runs the risk of being left out of the final vote in several electoral colleges.
Ecologists have already informed that they will leave the second round if they are in third place and there is a candidate from the radical right.
Mélenchon also said that he hopes that no voter from his party “does the foolish thing” of voting for Le Pen’s party, led by Jordan Bardella, who could be the next prime minister of France.
With each election, the National Meeting has been expanding its results.
In the past, the party began to attract popular layers, such as workers, who previously voted for the left. Unemployed and low-skilled workers represent an important base of its voters. The party extended to other categories of the population.
One of the few strongholds that still resist the radical right in France is the capital, Paris.
Bardella, president of Le Pen’s National Rally, has said he will not be prime minister if his party fails to win an absolute majority in parliament.
The French Constitution provides that foreign policy and Defense are the responsibilities of the president, who is the head of the Armed Forces.
But unlike other rare occasions when there was a republican right-wing president and a socialist prime minister, or vice versa, now, with a radical right-wing government in power for the first time, there would be risks of conflict in several areas, including internationally.
The National Meeting is very critical of the European Union and has a habit of boycotting votes on the most varied topics.
“We run the risk of an even more chaotic situation, with an ungovernable parliament,” says Jérôme Fourquet, director of the Ifop opinion institute.
By Daniela Fernandes
2024-06-28 23:19:52