Keys to understanding the scenario of a potential war in the Middle East

ISRAEL (France 24).-The assassinations of the political leader of Hamas and the number three of Hezbollah have put the Middle East on edge. In anticipation of the reprisals announced by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel, the US has mobilized its military apparatus, while international diplomacy is trying to avoid a regional escalation.

The Middle East is on the brink of all-out war. A series of violent events in late July – the Israeli attack in Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s number three, Fuad Shukr, and the assassination in Tehran of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh – have put Israel in the crosshairs.

Two of the strongest armed forces in the Middle East, one state-run (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) and one non-state-run (Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah), have vowed to avenge the deaths with a “calculated” and “timely” response, raising tension and uncertainty across the region.

The international community has called on all parties to remain calm in order to avoid an escalation, the consequences of which would impact the entire Middle East. The question now is how to contain the conflict and avoid a full-blown regional war.

The assassination of Haniyeh, an aggression against Iranian territory

The right to defend oneself and respond is one of the issues that most complicates diplomatic efforts to try to stop a large-scale war, which seems inevitable.

In talks with top diplomats from Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, Iranian officials have invoked their right to respond to Israel, considering the assassination in Tehran of the political leader of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, to be an armed aggression against its territory.

Iran’s message is that Haniyeh was its guest, and therefore his assassination, on the day of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration, is “too great a provocation to ignore.”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also made this clear by giving the green light to an attack on Israel. For Khamenei, leaving the assassination unanswered would, in the eyes of Iran’s political leaders, show a weak stance and could embolden his enemies.

The question remains whether this response will achieve its objectives or whether Israel and its allies will succeed in countering it. The unprecedented bombings on April 13, when Iran sent more than 300 missiles and drones against Israel in retaliation for the assassination of senior Iranian officials at the Iranian consulate in Damascus, met with a limited response. Most of the projectiles were intercepted, aided by efforts by the United States, Britain, Jordan and Israel, but some managed to cause damage to various military and intelligence facilities.

In April, Tehran wanted to send a signal without coming close to causing maximum damage. This time, Iran may think that trying to achieve deterrence will require a more painful strike.

Facing a combined attack against Israel?

Diplomatic efforts have been fruitless. So far, they have failed to stem rising regional tensions or soften Iran’s stance. The US is therefore preparing to deploy fighter jets to the Middle East in an attempt to deter Tehran.

The Pentagon has already sent a squadron of fighter jets to reinforce Israel’s air force. The Defense Department has also ordered warships and destroyers to the region. Embassies have asked their nationals living in Lebanon to leave immediately, and many international airlines have cancelled flights to Beirut, Tel Aviv and Tehran.

In short, they are preparing to face a possible broader attack than the one in April that could involve Hezbollah and other groups in the axis of the Resistance.

In his latest speech, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah warned that “our response will come, alone or as part of a collective response from the entire front (of the Resistance).”

For the Lebanese Shiite militia, Israel has crossed the red line with the attack on Beirut on July 30 that killed senior commander Fuad Shukr. The attack also killed five civilians and a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Since then, border clashes have intensified with drone and rocket attacks against northern Israel, while the Israeli army has bombed Lebanese border towns with fighter planes and artillery fire. Despite renewed border tensions, the reprisals announced by Hezbollah have not yet been carried out.

The late response from Hezbollah and Iran could be justified by a possible joint action. Haniyeh’s assassination took place after Pezeshkian’s inauguration. Other leaders of the Resistance were also invited to Tehran for the inauguration ceremony. Israel’s message was clear: anyone could be targeted and killed.

“This has put the entire axis of the Resistance in a defensive position where retaliation is necessary, both to avenge the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, and to deter Israel from killing other pro-Iranian leaders, such as Hassan Nasrallah, or General Ismail Ghaani, commander of the Quds Force, the military arm of the IRGC for Iran’s foreign operations, or Abdull Malik al Houthi, of the Yemeni group Ansarullah,” Bashar Al Lake, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, explains to France 24.

Who are the groups of the axis of the Resistance?

The Axis of Resistance is an anti-Israel military and political alliance, made up of numerous paramilitary organizations, under the leadership of Iran.

The groups were formed decades ago but have only recently regained prominence since Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel on October 7, leading to Israel’s invasion of Gaza and one of the region’s bloodiest wars.

The “party of God” (Hezbollah) was created in the 1980s by the Quds Force as a counterweight to Shiite power amid the Lebanese civil war. It is the strongest paramilitary organization in the Middle East, with more than 40,000 fighters, according to the US State Department. Iran has armed and trained Hezbollah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars into the group.

The other groups are active in the Palestinian Territories, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

In Iraq, they are grouped under the umbrella of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, with Kataeb Hezbollah, created in 2007, being one of the most powerful members. Other prominent groups that are part of this organisation are Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Badr Organisation.

In Yemen, the Houthis are a Shia armed group that emerged from the Zaydi sect in the north of the country, also known as Ansarallah, in the 1990s. The Houthis rebelled against the Yemeni government in 2014 and eventually took control of most of the country. Interestingly, the Houthis had never been directly involved in attacks against US or allied targets, but this changed with the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza.

In the Palestinian territories, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, although they are Sunni Muslims while the rest of the groups are Shiite, share anti-Israeli sentiment. Their strategic geopolitical position, coupled with the Palestinian cause, has led them to receive military support and funding from Iran to continue their fight against the state of Israel.

Syria is the only state that is a member of the Resistance axis. The relationship between Iran and the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance. When the Assad government was challenged by Syrian rebel groups in 2012, leading to a civil war, the IRGC stepped in to ensure the survival of the Syrian regime. Hundreds of IRGC commanders and officers, as well as fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah, are believed to be present in Syria, posing a threat to Israel.

Possible scenarios for Iran’s retaliation

Military sources consulted by France 24 estimate that Tehran will not limit itself to launching missiles and drones from its territory, because the latter would take several hours to reach their targets in Israel. “This delay offers Israel and its international allies the possibility of intercepting them over neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iraq, as happened on April 13,” said retired colonel George El Khoury.

According to the Lebanese military analyst, Iran and its allies “could launch barrages of explosive missiles and drones from southern Lebanon and Syria, reaching their targets within minutes, which would reduce Israel’s ability to mount an effective defense.” However, “this does not rule out the possibility of additional missiles and drones being launched from Iranian, Iraqi and Yemeni territories,” he adds.

Iran and its allies are seeking an effective and calculated response, not just symbolic, which will ultimately be seen on the battlefield.