Russia is massing forces on Ukraine’s northern borders for a possible invasion and attack on the country’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report.
In total, Russia has assembled about 50,000 troops in the Northern Group of Forces, analysts note, citing calculations by Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets. Of these, 31,000 are located in the Belgorod region, more than 10,000 in the Kursk region, and more than 8,000 in the Bryansk region.
According to Mashovets, as a disguise, the Russian units are unloaded at stations in the Kursk region, and then sent on their own to the Belgorod region, closer to Kharkiv. Recently, a battalion of the 76th (Pskov) Airborne Division, which was transferred from the occupied part of the Ukrainian Zaporozhye region, arrived in the Kursk region.
However, the Northern grouping is mainly formed from parts of the Leningrad Military District, notes ISW.
At the same time, military analysts believe that the Russian army does not yet have enough forces to capture Kharkiv. “But Russian offensive operations against Kharkiv or Sumy will withdraw and hold Ukrainian units from other, more important sectors of the front,” the analysts emphasize.
Previously, BILD sources from the Ukrainian military said that Russia could use between 20,000 and 40,000 troops in an attempt to capture Kharkiv. “Then we will have to decide whether we want to defend the north or the east. It is impossible to do both,” explained one of the interlocutors of the publication.
A major offensive against Kharkiv could begin at the end of May, senior Ukrainian intelligence sources told The Financial Times. According to them, the Russian army is preparing the ground for this operation by launching missile strikes on the city. Their goal is to force residents to leave Kharkiv, making it uninhabitable.
Simultaneously with the shelling, Russia is trying to cause panic in the city. At the beginning of April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine warned about “enemy disinformation” – reports of the alleged evacuation of residents due to the encirclement of the city.
Meduza sources close to the presidential administration have previously said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “sensed the weakness” of Ukraine and is preparing to make another attempt to seize Kiev or Kharkiv.
According to them, the Kremlin considers the capture of Kharkiv a “realistic goal” after which the war can gradually end. “Symbolically, this is also a victory. A city with a population of one million, where there is a large Russian-speaking population,” said one of Meduza’s interlocutors.
The Russian army announced that it had captured two more villages in eastern Ukraine
The Russian army announced today that it has captured two more villages in Ukraine, TASS reported.
“Liberated” are Solovyovo (Solovye in Ukrainian) in the eastern Donetsk region and Kotlyarovka (Kotlyarivka in Ukrainian) in the neighboring Kharkiv region in the north, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced.
So far, there is no comment on the matter from the Ukrainian side.
Solovyovo is located near another village in the region of the city of Avdeevka – Ocheretino, which the Russian Ministry of Defense announced as captured yesterday.
Kotlyarovka is located in the area of the city of Kupyansk, which Russia is trying to retake after Ukraine took it back in September 2022.
The Russian army has been making slow but methodical progress since taking control of Avdeyevka in February. Since then, it has captured a number of villages in the area, Reuters notes.
AFP described the alleged capture of Solovyovo and Kotlyarovka as another sign that the Russian armed forces are advancing.
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