Is Baku “trampling Ankara’s leg?” Or are we dealing with Turkish-Azerbaijani “transformation”? – 2024-03-09 14:19:00

The Moscow commentator of the quasi-official Azerbaijani media confirmed the impression that Russian Prime Minister Mishustin was sent to Baku as a special envoy of President Putin, and the issue of the North-South transport corridor was at the core of the discussions. It is obvious, and it is openly declared by Russian officials, that Moscow seeks to get rid of its dependence on the Bosphorus-Dardanile Strait and the Suez Canal by using Azerbaijan’s transit opportunities.

Apparently, not only does it have the right to exist, but in terms of predicting the future, the expert assessment that Russia is either predicting the militarization of the Black Sea or is developing such a scenario is very probable. Helping Russia get rid of its dependence on the Bosphorus-Dardanelle Strait means, in a very qualitative way, influencing Russian-Turkish relations. Navigation through the Bosphorus-Dardanelle Strait is, of course, regulated by an international agreement, but this does not affect Turkey’s sovereignty.

In this context, the provision of North-South transportation transit, on which Moscow and Baku seem to have reached an agreement in principle, is at first glance perceived as an “anti-Turkish move” made by Aliyev. But what is the guarantee that Ankara and Baku have not made a geopolitical “assignment of roles”? The situation is such that Turkey is economically dependent on the favor of the United States and the European Union, and Azerbaijan, without Russia’s support, cannot bring the legal-political “package” to the status quo formed by the terrorist war of September 19.

On March 7, the President of Ukraine Zelensky has already invited Ilham Aliyev in an official letter to participate in the Peace Conference to be convened in Switzerland and to nominate a guard to participate in the development of principles of settlement with Russia. Today it has already been notified that he is leaving for Turkey. This diplomatic “marathon” follows the Russian Prime Minister’s visit to Baku. Will Zelensky try to convince Erdogan to use the levers of influence on Aliyev, will he offer to “share” the Black Sea?

Apparently, in-depth discussions on the issue of Ukraine have begun in the United States. China has taken a new initiative. President Xi Jinping’s special envoy visited Moscow and then European countries. Against this background, it has become known that the Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, is leaving her post. Nuland deals with the issues of Russia and the Eurasian area at the State Department.

In 2021, he On October 11-13, he was in Moscow, held talks with Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, Putin’s assistant on foreign affairs Ushakov, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kozak. Five months after Nuland’s visit to Moscow, Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine and Russian-American diplomatic relations fell to the lowest level.

But that’s on a public level. What kind of connections Moscow and Washington have in reality, no one reveals, but that there are certain “not to cross red lines” agreements, it is understood from the “one step forward, two steps back” tactics of the conflict parties in Ukraine. Baku and Ankara seem to be preparing for a situation where neither one nor the other will suffer from the upcoming “great agreement”. And the question arises: what is Armenia’s expectation, what is to be received, when the West and Russia reach an agreement in principle? All sides, in fact, understand and accept that there will be no capitulation in the Ukrainian war.