Four main variables that will upset the first American Republican primaries of 15, the “Iowa Caucus”.
On the afternoon of the 13th (local time), two days before the Iowa caucuses (party convention), the first Republican primaries for the American presidential elections (15), the center of Des Moines, the capital, was engulfed by a Arctic cold wave. The temperature was -16 degrees Celsius with the snow piled well above an adult’s knees, and the wind blowing incessantly made it feel like -32 degrees Celsius. The downtown area, where only a few snowplows could be seen, was completely deserted and the only sign of the event was the caucus banner. The temperature that night was -43.3 degrees, and the National Weather Service warned that it was “life-threatening cold air.” Caucus night is expected to record the lowest temperature in the 52-year history of the Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972. Iowa, with a population of about 3.2 million, has about 750,000 registered Republicans and, due to the extreme cold, the capacity to mobilize voters that day increased rapidly. The Des Moines Register, a major local media outlet, said, “It has become important for young fans to arrange services to transport older fans in four-wheel drive vehicles.” ▲ Former US President Donald Trump in Urbandale, Iowa, USA on the 13th (local time) A sign outside the presidential campaign headquarters is buried in snow. The US National Weather Service (NWS) issued a winter weather advisory on this day, including heavy rain, strong winds, heavy snow and blizzards. About 30 million people are under winter storm warnings, mostly in the US Midwest and Great Lakes region. The Arctic air mass hitting North America is expected to remain in place until this weekend, bringing record-breaking cold. Urbandale Reuters Yonhap News The unprecedented cold and heavy snow that hit Iowa, the ‘presidential weather vane,’ is emerging as a last-minute variable, and the actions and ratings of Republican candidates in the primaries are also mixed. There has been speculation that former President Donald Trump (78), who has an overwhelming approval rating, will be negatively affected due to his large number of supporters in rural areas and older age groups. On the one hand, there is speculation that this could actually be good news for Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis (46), who respectively rely on their organizational skills and their declaration of support for the governor.
Former President Trump, who had canceled a campaign rally the previous day, also canceled a local rally this afternoon and instead held a video rally with Iowa Attorney General Brenna Byrd. Instead, he wrote on TruthSocial that he was “going to Iowa now,” and said in a rally video that he was worried about the weather, but added, “The news is reporting that Trump voters are much more engaged and will come to vote even if they have to walk on glass.” Participation was encouraged.▲ Page 10 1 Severe cold and heavy snow… Where are the supporters?
The second-place candidates, who had postponed their campaign the day before due to intense cold, began collecting last-minute votes today, focusing on the state’s outskirts. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (52) held two campaign rallies that day. At an event for party members held in Cedar Falls in the morning, he said, “Monday (15th) will be very cold” and “What I want to ask you to do is not only go to the polls, but also take the time to bring your people with you. She added, “You may have to wait in line, so please wear layers and bring your ID,” and she pointed out, “Right now, you’re making history.”
Governor DeSantis, who had postponed four events the day before, dedicated his efforts to Iowa enough to visit all 99 counties in the state. On this day, after the Council Bluff campaign, he appealed for courage to attend the caucus despite the bad weather, saying, “I will change this country.” He said, “Donald Trump is probably on the phone” and “He’s probably relaxing at Mar-a-Lago (resort). “The temperature will be 24 degrees Celsius.”
It is difficult to predict what the turnout will be due to the extreme cold and heavy snow. Republican strategists predict that higher voter turnout will favor Trump. If the number of voters is less than 160,000, it means that Trump’s approval rating will decrease, while if it exceeds 170,500, it is expected to be in his favor.
2 Will Trump get a majority of votes?
This time Trump’s side needs to get more than 50% of the vote to dominate the initial stages and at the same time silence a new person’s theory and justification for persecuting him. Haley and DeSantis are said to be aiming for a vote margin difference of between 20 and 25 percent.
In the latest opinion poll (Des Moines Register, NBC) published this evening, Trump reiterated his lead with 48% approval, but unlike previous opinion polls, it fell below 50%. Former Ambassador Haley follows with 20% and Governor DeSantis with 16%.
3 The direction of the evangelical votes is
What the American media pays attention to in the Iowa caucuses is the direction of evangelical Protestants, the main supporters of the Republican Party. The New York Times (NYT) and other sources have reported that they represent 25% of Iowa’s population and have unified their support for every presidential election, including former President Ronald Reagan. However, in this year’s presidential election, the supported candidates are split between Trump and DeSantis. DeSantis’ approval rating in the conservative Northwest, where evangelicals like Sue, Lyon and Polymers are concentrated, is expected to have a significant impact on future primary elections.
4 Where will the “Redneck” faction go next?
Additionally, it is important to reaffirm Trump’s “redneck” support group. Rednecks, which refer to the poorly educated, low-income white working class living in the suburbs, were found in areas where the Democratic Party dominated such as Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, but Trump was able to win the election thanks to redneck support in the upper Mississippi Valley. On the other hand, the key question is how many votes Haley, who is relatively popular among white, highly educated and high-income groups, will win not only in urban counties but also in rural ones.
The Iowa caucuses will be held in 99 counties and 1,670 precincts starting at 7pm Central Time on the 17th. Unlike primaries, a caucus is a closed system in which only party members and 40 of the 2,429 delegates vote elected Republicans are assigned to Iowa.
Des Moines, Iowa correspondent Jaeyeon Lee
2024-01-14 11:22:28
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