Index – Foreign – Joe Biden does not want even more confusion, America must intervene

In the immediate aftermath of Tehran’s spectacular but almost entirely ineffective attack on Israel, the Middle East seemed to avoid escalation. Iran’s operation, which launched more than 300 drones and missiles, allowed its leadership to show that it had successfully avenged Israel’s killing of seven senior Revolutionary Guard commanders on April 1. Israelis, meanwhile, can take satisfaction in the extraordinary operational success of the country’s sophisticated air defense systems, bolstered with the help of the US, British, French, Saudi and Jordanian militaries.

Washington certainly hopes that the Iran-Israel conflict will subside. The six-month war and the terrible humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip have put a heavy burden on American domestic politics, so Washington does not want to deal with another crisis. Therefore, after the failed attack, US President Joe Biden urged the Israelis to “accept their victory” and “slow down, rethink” the execution of retaliation, which could start a wider war in the Middle East, writes Suzanne Maloney in the columns of Foreign Affairs , Vice President of the Brookings Institution.

Unfortunately, Biden’s cautious approach is not shared in Jerusalem and Tehran. The massacre of Hamas on October 7 and the unprecedented attack by Iran turned the confrontation between the two countries from a confrontation taking place in the shadows into a direct existential threat.

A wider conflict would have devastating consequences for the region and the world. It would exacerbate violence and displacement throughout the region, torpedo progress towards Arab-Israeli normalization, and cause significant economic disruptions with far-reaching effects. Averting such a disaster will require Washington to use its unparalleled diplomatic and military resources in ways it has not done so far. It must simultaneously push for an end to the fighting in Gaza and deter Tehran from further retaliation. Washington may not be happy about having to act, but it has no choice. Only the Biden administration can prevent a catastrophic escalation, the author writes.

In the shadows

Iran has been engaged in an armed confrontation with Israel for more than 40 years. However, he has done all this indirectly and covertly so far. Tehran relied on proxy militia groups that extended the regime’s influence while shielding its leaders from risk. In 1992, Iran collaborated with Hezbollah in the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires that killed 22 people, but Iranian forces themselves were not involved in the attack. In recent years, Tehran has funded, trained, and provided advanced weapons to a number of terrorist organizations that have killed Israelis at home and around the world—including Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. So far, however, his own forces have never struck Israel or Israelis.

Over time, the violence became bidirectional: Israel made increasingly serious efforts to prevent and retaliate against aggression by Iran and its proxies. Analysts believe that Israel is responsible for the killing of at least six Iranian nuclear scientists responsible. Israel has also carried out acts of sabotage and cyber attacks to slow down Iran’s nuclear program. He even acquired the official archives of Iran’s nuclear program. However, Israel has never acknowledged its involvement in any of the operations. The Jewish state has been much more open about its military campaign to reduce and disrupt Iranian capabilities in Syria, including airstrikes against Iranian arms shipments and military positions. At the same time, Israel has never openly attacked Iranian territory.

The ball bounces in the United States’ half

This new norm is troubling for the Biden administration. Since taking office, the president has made a strong effort to withdraw the United States from conflicts in the Middle East. He worked to end Washington’s Asian orientation and placed a strong emphasis on helping Ukraine defend itself against a Russian invasion. After October 7th, he came to the aid of Israel, but the White House has been calling for an end to the war in Gaza in recent months.

However, even for an administration that prioritizes US national security interests, an escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict poses too many risks to ignore. Like it or not, Washington must take on the thankless task of stabilizing the Middle East, writes the author.

Biden could start by amplifying his warning to Tehran, making it clear that any future attempts to attack Israel will be retaliated by the United States. It should declare that Washington will respond to attacks against its partners in order to promote security integration in the region by thwarting Iranian attacks. In addition, Biden should use the political capital he has accumulated in Israel since October 7 to substantially change the country’s perception of the war in Gaza.

For this, Israeli leaders must develop a strategy that aims not only to eliminate Hamas, but to establish governance and security in the period that follows. According to the author, it is time for Israel and the United States to recognize that the humanitarian crisis and government vacuum in the enclave is undermining Israel’s legitimate efforts to remove Hamas from power, and that the crisis presents an opportunity for Tehran.

Biden is trying to achieve a ceasefire with all his might, it may even succeed. However, whatever it does, it cannot permanently eliminate the threat posed by the Iranian regime to its neighbors, including Israel. At the same time, Washington can help deter Tehran and prevent destabilization of the region. In addition, a cold cost-benefit analysis justifies the investment. Like Beijing and Moscow (and often in cooperation with them), Tehran seeks to reshape the regional order to its advantage. Only the United States can lead the coalition that is ready to prevent this.

(Cover photo: Graffiti depicting US President Joe Biden as a superhero in Tel Aviv on April 14, 2024. Photo: Hannah McKay / Reuters)

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