For part of their history, the three Nordic countries – Finland, Sweden and Norway – were one country united under the Swedish crown. Now that Finland and Sweden have abandoned neutrality and joined NATO, along with the other Nordic countries Denmark, Norway and Iceland, they want to fight together again – as if they were all one army. And NATO must redraw its map to make its gulfs, gulfs, seas and territories a single area covered by Article 5, which guarantees protection, writes Foreign Policy in its report.
“The Baltic Sea and the high north are so closely connected that it is essentially a single strategic theater, but with different directions,” said General Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s chief of staff. “To the north in the high north and to the east in the Baltic Sea”.
But how can these many different areas be organized under one comprehensive strategy? How does one patrol such a vast area – from Russia’s bases in Kaliningrad, through the fjords to ice-covered Svalbard and undersea internet cables across the Atlantic? Where do we draw the border in the Baltic Sea between the Nordic countries and the European mainland?
A new geostrategic situation
On the new NATO map, everything must be connected. The alliance’s nascent headquarters in Norfolk, Virginia, tasked with directing potential battles across the Atlantic, will have to double in size to integrate the new Allies; and must figure out how to unite the northern armies into a single fighting force.
From a geostrategic point of view, the question of Sweden and Finland joining NATO means that the North Atlantic, the High North and the Baltic Sea are connected for the first time
– said Tobias Billström, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden. “There is a major geopolitical shift taking place right now.”
The only way for the Arctic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea to come together is through cooperation. “We need to integrate our forces in the region and in NATO,” Kristoffersen said. “This means integration in the areas of land, air, sea, cyber and space.”
Forces must be integrated
The idea of force integration dates back to World War I, when the US military sent troops directly into British and French units to fight. “We shouldn’t have different responsibilities,” added Kristoffersen. “We all have to have balanced forces, but we have to integrate them.”
The Scandinavian chiefs of staff are already planning to move the region’s ground command to Finland, air command to Norway and logistics to Sweden. They haven’t figured out where to put the naval command yet, as they are currently working on how to divide their ships between the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean.
The question is how far the integration can go. The countries use the same weapons, but they will still need American help. About 70 percent of NATO’s military capabilities still belong to the United States, said Ketil Olsen, Norway’s former military representative to NATO, who now runs Andoya Space, a missile launch site in northern Norway.
There was a lot of discussion
The Nordic countries created a defense bloc in 2009, but for more than a decade they have argued over small details. They clashed over the construction of a jointly procured armored personnel carrier – only 25 percent of the vehicle was built together. There was even a debate about what color their uniforms should be.
Honestly, we couldn’t agree on anything
Olsen said. Norway’s most sensitive defense negotiations are not with other Nordic countries but with the Americans and the British on intelligence, space exploration and special operations.
Countries must establish a corps-level headquarters for the region large enough to house up to 45,000 troops in wartime. However, the biggest problem is the proportions. Finland can conscript about 280,000 soldiers from the civilian population – and more than three times that number, more than three times as many reservists – but Norway and Sweden can only call up a fraction of that. And for the possible fight against the Russians, they will need even more.
NATO’s new map may require building relationships, but drawing the lines is a political issue. Finland and Sweden, together with Norway, want to participate in the alliance’s military structure, patrolling across the Atlantic and in the high north.
You have to work together
“If you look at the map, it’s obvious to me that the Nordic countries have to work together,” said General Micael Byden, the Swedish chief of staff. “And if you look at the Baltic, it’s part of continental Europe.” This would mean drawing a line across the Baltic Sea – between Finland and Sweden in the north and the Baltic states in the south.
“We don’t have three NATOs within NATO,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, referring to the alliance’s operational commands in Naples, Italy, Norfolk, Virginia, and Brunssum, Netherlands.
“We will swim or drown together,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said in an interview. “There is also a close connection between what happened in the Baltic Sea and the high north.”
NATO has established a Baltic Sea command center in Rostock, Germany, where allies will monitor the movement of Russian submarines between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg. But where will the Northern Sea Patrols end – and where will the rest of Europe take their place? The allies don’t know yet.
“On the eastern side of the Baltic Sea, on the western side of the Baltic Sea or in the middle? asked a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity about the pending war plans. “It can absolutely be done, but it’s a politically sensitive issue.”
An attack can come from anywhere
According to the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – and Poland, no line should be drawn in the Baltic Sea.
Our position is very clear: the Baltic Sea must be a single operational area
said a senior Lithuanian official who requested anonymity. “We will fight against dividing the Baltic Sea.”
NATO’s committee of military experts will make a decision on where to draw the border by the end of the year, Pal Jonson said in an interview. Until then, however, the northern states also have to come to terms with the idea that they have to protect not only the home front, but continental Europe as well.
The attack can come from anywhere.
“The vector of the Russian attack could also come from the Atlantic Ocean,” said the NATO official. – In Kaliningrad [és] there are clearly potential conflict areas in the Baltic states. However, it is really dangerous to draw the conclusion that a possible invasion will take place there.”
(Cover photo: NATO exercise on March 10, 2024 at sea near Sorstraumen, Norway. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand / AFP)
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2024-08-06 04:55:04