On September 1, voters in two former GDR states, Thuringia and Saxony, elected new state parliaments. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won more than 30 percent of the vote in both places – while it was good for first place in Thuringia and second place in Saxony.
As could be expected, there was great joy on Sunday at the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) results in both Erfurt and Dresden.
the party was able to enjoy its first election victory at the provincial level.
Despite the fact that their leader in Thuringia, Björn Höck, was fined a few months before the elections for using a slogan previously used by Hitler’s violent organizations, the AfD, led by the Thuringian prime minister candidate, won by a landslide in the state of only 2.1 million people.
After the votes have been counted, the 88-member Erfurt parliament will look like this:
- far right AfD – 32 mandates (+10 compared to 2019)
- Christian Democrat CDU – 23 mandates (+2)
- socially conservative, extreme left-wing populist BSW – 15 mandates (did not exist before)
- successor party of the former state party, far left the Left – 12 mandates (–17)
- social democrat SPD – 6 mandates (–2)
On Sunday, the far-right party improved its results five years ago in Saxony in the same way, albeit with only 3.1 percentage points instead of 9.4, which was enough for second place in the province this time as well.
After the votes are counted, the 120-member Dresden parliament will look like this:
- Christian Democrat CDU – 41 mandates (-4 compared to 2019)
- far right AfD – 40 mandates (+2)
- socially conservative, extreme left-wing populist BSW – 16 mandates (did not exist before)
- social democrat SPD – 10 mandates (0)
- ecobaloldal Greens – 7 mandates (–5)
- successor party of the former state party, far left the Left – 5 mandates (–9)
- conservative, local patriot Free Voters – 1 mandate (+1)
Difficult coalition negotiations are coming in both provinces
It was already visible in the exit poll results – and we also wrote in our election guide – that the AfD is preparing for a good evening, as it could expect a third of the mandates in both places beforehand,
i.e. the party acted as a blocking force for decisions requiring two-thirds in both places.
It is no coincidence that the federal leadership of the party, which framed the election campaigns in both places as a referendum against the Olaf Scholz-led government, was satisfied with the results. The female co-chair of the party, Alice Weidel, stated during the evening that the SPD-Greens-FDP government, which was called a traffic light coalition because of the parties’ colors, was punished by the voters and that after the regional elections in Brandenburg on September 22, she could not even rule out an early election, although this is quite unlikely to happen.
Although the party is preparing to govern for the first time in its history, since the CDU, which finished second in Thuringia and first in Saxony, has already announced in advance that they have no intention of extending their hand to the far-right party, the political quarantine, known as a firewall in Germany, will remain in place for the AfD- against.
They could also be happy with the results of the exit poll and then the election at the Christian Democratic CDU, although they could hold their heads after the initial joy in both Erfurt and Dresden.
In Saxony, they managed to keep their first place and their prime minister, Michael Kretschmer, who sometimes spectacularly departs from the party’s center-right Atlanticist views, will probably keep his office in Dresden, but his government five years ago lost the majority in the parliament – with their junior partners, the SPD and the The Greens, which have just entered, do not have a parliamentary majority, so the CDU prime minister faces difficult coalition negotiations and governance.
The party led by Friedrich Merz announced before the election that, as a centrist party, he was not willing to cooperate with any extremist party, which, in addition to the AfD, was blamed on the successor party of the former GDR state party, the far-left Die Linke – for some reason, the latter is excellent, otherwise social no to BSW, who often agrees with the AfD on issues.
In Saxony, the former Merkel party is in an easier position, as the Kretschmers can present a parliamentary majority if they team up with the BSW and its junior partner, the SPD, at the local level, but at the same time, there are great ideological differences between the members of the government, which range from the extreme left to the center right, and in addition it is not really known locally what BSW wants.
BSW placed the party’s namesake and face, Sahra Wagenknecht, at the center of the campaign, but the former Link politician did not run in the election, and one of the biggest promises of the party’s campaign was to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, and to immediately stop the arms deliveries to Kiev – about however, decisions are still made not in Dresden, but in Berlin.
However, while in Saxony it is possible to form a majority at least until the government is voted in, the situation is completely different in Thuringia.
In Thuringia, the CDU would only be able to show a majority if it were supported by one of the parties they declare to be extreme, i.e. die Linke or the AfD.
Under the leadership of Mario Voigt, the CDU in Thuringia improved its results, but Voigt still faces difficult weeks, as the coalition maths cannot be solved without the two extreme parties – on the eve of the election, he said that he would negotiate with the SPD, but did not rule it out. nor the cooperation with the BSW, but even so they are one mandate short of the majority, i.e. the vote of at least one member of the Link or AfD would always be needed to vote for the government’s bills as well.
Even the fair stand did not work out for the parties of the federal government
While the AfD and the CDU can look at the results with satisfaction – after all, the CDU will continue to govern in Saxony, as it has continuously since 1990, while in Thuringia they have had no chance of getting into government for a decade, while this year they have – while the federal government parties they may be disappointed.
Of the three governing parties, only the SPD entered the parliament of both provinces, the Greens only in one place, while the FDP, continuing its decline in recent years, dropped out of the parliament in both places.
Although the largest governing party did not set too high expectations in any of the provinces (it has not been possible to achieve a double-digit result in the provincial elections for five years), in Thuringia the local SPD set a goal of a double-digit result, but in the end only 6.1 percent came together, which is only worth six mandates.
Since the election did not have such high stakes for the SPD, the party is going through a not good, but not so tragic evening, although it may make the leaders in the party office in Berlin think about what could have gone wrong in the government in the last four years, so that the 2021 After 23.4 percent in Thuringia and 19.3 percent in Saxony in the federal elections of 2008, the party did not even achieve a double-digit result this year – the party is currently light years away from this and because of this it is increasingly likely that next year the CDU and the Bavarian CSU union, which is starting in a party alliance with it, will win nationally .
However, the downfall is even clearer for the two other federal government parties, the Greens and the FDP, as it appears that their politicians do not understand the language of the East Germans.
The Greens have not been able to achieve good results in East Germany for years – in the former GDR states, the eco-leftists are often considered to be the cause of all evil, and not only the politicians, but also the voters often blame them for everything. For this reason, it is not surprising that the eco-side party could not increase its number of seats in any place, but it can be painful that they were even kicked out of the parliament in Thuringia.
At the same time, the biggest losers of the elections are the smallest governing party, the pro-market-liberal FDP, as well as die Linke, which has been governing in Thuringia for the last ten years.
While the FDP failed to pass the five-percent threshold required for entry in two more provinces – the fifth and sixth cases since they came to power in 2021 – die Linke suffered huge losses in both places. Thuringia may be the most painful for the far-left party, whose prime minister was given to Bodo Ramelow for ten years with a one-month gap. he does not want to hear about cooperation with his party.
In Germany, before the federal elections in September next year, state elections will be held in Brandenburg this year, on September 22, and municipal elections in Hamburg next March.
(Cover photo: Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) representative Björn Höcke at the parliament building in Erfurt, Germany on September 1, 2024. Photo: Thilo Schmuelgen/Reuters)
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2024-09-02 10:29:13