January 15, 2024 at 1.31pm Update: 21 minutes ago
To maintain prosperity in the Netherlands, it is essential that the population does not grow too rapidly until 2050. Otherwise, access to healthcare, education and housing will come under pressure. This was the conclusion of a special state committee.
On Monday the committee published a study on demographic developments. One of the conclusions is that the changing composition of the population needs to be taken into account.
“We have to make choices about immigration and put the quality of the economy and social cohesion first,” says state commission chairman Richard van Zwol. “This is necessary to keep education, healthcare, housing and social security accessible to all in the Netherlands in the long term.”
Population growth and composition is a sensitive political topic. After all, choices have to be made about how many people can come to the Netherlands and who exactly they are. Because even if there is already a shortage of staff, which due to the aging population will only increase, social services are also under pressure due to population growth.
What exactly does a state commission do?
A state commission is usually made up of scientists, (former) politicians and other experts who conduct research on topics important to the Netherlands. The committee, which is independent, then provides an opinion.
The State Commission therefore speaks of “moderate growth” of the population. This means nineteen to twenty million inhabitants in 2050. With this figure it will be possible to “cope” with the pressure on the real estate market, on healthcare and education and “support” economic growth, the committee writes.
According to current forecasts from the CBS statistics agency, in 2050 we will find ourselves with just under twenty million people. No growth or high growth is therefore not the solution, the researchers write. The number now amounts to almost eighteen million inhabitants.
If the starting point is moderate growth, policymakers must look beyond the usual government mandate of up to four years. Van Zwol: “Already aiming for moderate population growth towards 2050, the lack of facilities and inequality between social groups will be limited as much as possible.”
No quotas or rigid ceilings, but target figures
The desire for this topic to be explored further had already been expressed in 2018 by the then leader of the VVD Klaas Dijkhoff. The demographic changes that occurred in the middle of the century will have “major consequences” in many areas regarding housing, health, education and integration, it was thought at the time.
Politicians need tools to formulate policies on this issue.
A vision on migration is one such tool. “A vision on the basis of which long-term plans can be made, instead of experiencing crises,” the committee writes. But politicians are grappling with this. The government has fallen and PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB are currently in an uneasy formation with mutual blockades.
The committee proposes a so-called “migration bandwidth” to control population growth. Politicians should stipulate multi-year agreements on different types of migration (work, study, asylum and family reunification).
Annual net migration, i.e. the number of people entering the Netherlands minus the number leaving, must therefore be adjusted so that the Netherlands will have around nineteen to twenty million inhabitants in 2050.
It is up to politicians to decide what the net migration is each year and to what extent it can be diverted, the commission believes. “These bandwidths are not hard quotas or ceilings, but target figures,” the researchers write.
If actual figures deviate from the target, policymakers will need to take additional measures, it is advised. Whatever politicians decide, the focus must in any case be on 2050.
2024-01-15 12:31:34
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