The Ibovespa closed lower this Wednesday, with financial agents adjusting bets on the Federal Reserve’s next steps, in the wake of inflation data released in the United States the day before, when there was no trading on B3 due to the Carnival holiday.
The Brazilian stock market reference index, Ibovespa fell 0.79%, to 127,018.29 points, after two days without trading. The financial volume reached 40.89 billion reais, in a shorter session, opened at 1 pm, but marked by expiration dates for Ibovespa options and the future index.
Data on US consumer prices on Tuesday showed a rise above analysts’ forecasts, further dispelling chances of imminent interest rate cuts. After the numbers, the possibility priced in the market for a reduction in May decreased, with the highest percentage pointing to June.
“With every piece of data that goes out of line, we are going to get tired,” stated the head of EQI Research, Luís Moran.
The day before, the Dow Jones Brazil 20 ADR, which measures the performance of the 20 Brazilian shares most traded in the US as ADRs, fell 2.6%. This session, however, it advanced 0.77%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.96% and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.2671%.
Moran drew attention to the still negative external capital balance on the São Paulo stock exchange as a factor of additional pressure on business. “(The foreigner) “sets the price of the asset. If it sells, it brings the price down and that ends up complicating things too,” she added.
According to the most recent data made available by B3, the exchange recorded a net outflow of 2.95 billion reais in February until the 7th, increasing the negative balance for the year to 10.85 billion reais. These numbers do not include flows in share offerings.
But the return of Carnival had good news, said the head of EQI Research, citing index provider MSCI’s decision to exclude a number of Chinese stocks from a periodic rebalancing that takes effect at the end of the month and make shares of Brazilian companies listed abroad eligible for the MSCI Brazil index at the next review, in August.
“This has an important impact because we have some very relevant cases” that could benefit from this change, said Moran.
In the view of strategists at Itaú BBA, Nubank and XP Inc, which have their shares listed in the US, will have no problems joining the index. This Wednesday, Nubank closed with a gain of 4.54% and XP Inc advanced 3.29%.
2024-02-14 23:48:47