Fund manager Jan Petter Sissener believes that market forecasts of future interest rate cuts are overly optimistic.
The Sissener Canopus equity fund, managed by Jan Petter Sissener for the past 11 years, is particularly exposed to the financial and energy sectors, but also bets on some technology companies. Photo: Hanna Kristin Hjardar / DAMP Published: Published:
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– I still don’t have faith in the green sector. Blood will probably continue to flow in the streets in 2024, says Jan Petter Sissener.
The expert and outspoken fund manager has already compared investments in green growth shares with those of Lotto and has come to the conclusion that it is the latter that has a greater probability of profit.
– Green companies still benefit from going sober when it comes to pricing and growth opportunities, Sissener believes.
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Investment economist Mads Johannesen of Nordnet, on the other hand, believes that money could be made in 2024 by some green and renewable technology companies, which have long struggled against all odds.
– Can land some powerful hits
– Many companies have been closed since 2022 and until now – some have collapsed even by 50 and 60%. If some of these do well without raising more money, there may be easy percentages to collect there, he says.
Johannesen clarifies that the increase is conditioned by “favorable interest rate forecasts” and a soft landing of the world economy. He does not exclude that the exact opposite could happen.
– Many imagine that 2024 will be a stock market party, with sharp interest rate cuts and a soft landing of the world economy. But the opposite can quickly happen and then we could get some big hits in the stock market, he says.
No confidence in six US interest rate cuts
The US central bank (Fed) has signaled three interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points for next year. The market, for its part, has priced in as many as six US interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, and expects the first two to happen before May.
Neither Sissener nor Johannesen believe this much.
– We are very dubious about the number of interest rate cuts in the US that the market has priced in. It doesn’t make sense to get so many interest rate cuts and have a strong economy at the same time, Sissener says.
– I think the market may have been too optimistic. Since the end of November, Wall Street has risen terribly due to expected interest rate cuts. This increases the risk of a stock market downturn if things go wrong, Johannesen says and adds:
– As an investor, I would not go “all in” on the most interest-sensitive stocks.
A good year for Oslo Børs, with a return of between 10 and 15%, depends on there not being a prolonged and sharp decline in the price of oil, says Mads Johannesen on Nordnet – Photo: Erik Flaaris Johansen / NTB
He believes OPEC will play a key role
The performance of the Oslo Stock Exchange next year will closely coincide with oil price fluctuations, Johannesen believes.
Here the OPEC oil cartel plays a key role, says Johannesen.
– If OPEC preferred to gain more market share rather than further reduce oil production, then things would soon get very boring in Oslo Børs, he says.
At the same time, the investment economist says that unrest in the world and high geopolitical tension may lead to non-production of oil in some countries, which may lead to persistently high oil prices.
– This will be positive for the stock market in general and for oil and oil services companies in particular, says Johannesen.
2023-12-31 06:47:41
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