– There are two types of errors in forecasting extreme natural disasters, one is over-forecasting, the other is under-predicting actual developments. The second type of error is quite dangerous because it can make people subjective. I personally have not encountered this type of error.
Regarding over-forecasting, I still remember that when Typhoon Noru (September 2022) was about to hit, I posted on my personal page the warning at the “HIGHEST” level based on data on sea surface temperature and structure. Typhoon Bamboo… Luckily, when Typhoon Noru was about 100km from shore, it leveled off, swarmed offshore and then downgraded before reaching shore in Quang Nam and Da Nang.
This is the storm that I over-predicted compared to reality. Later, after the storm passed, there were comments that I spread fear, but why did I give such a warning? Because at that time, the boundary between a normal storm and a super storm was very fragile, while the storm was only more than 100km from shore and had about 5 hours left to land. The reason I make such an exaggerated prediction is also that fragile gap for everyone to be alert and take the trouble to evacuate to a safe place.
Another type of error that common-style forecasters like me are prone to making are errors due to personal emotions. For example, I am sitting in a quite hot place, the weather affects my emotions and looking at the model I see the possibility that this weather pattern may last long. If we are not careful, it is easy to immediately make a forecast like this. “The heat will last longer”, even using extreme words in the forecast without carefully considering other factors. I have made the same mistake and this is something that must be avoided. I always tell myself to control my emotions to make predictions that are realistic and realistic.
Weather forecasting is a job that involves the community, so forecasters are understandably afraid of making mistakes. How did you overcome this fear?
– Indeed, this is a very stressful job, especially when predicting extreme weather. I still remember storm number 8 in October 2020 and another storm number 8 in October 2021. Many international forecast models said that the storm would enter the North Central region of Vietnam, with wind gusts of level 10. , 11. At that time, I made the opposite forecast and wrote on my personal page that “the storm will weaken near the shore”.
After writing, I “lived in anxiety” not because I was not confident in my forecast, but because of the huge pressure. Just a few minutes later, thousands, then tens of thousands of people interacted with my forecast. . What if the storm still comes ashore? I couldn’t help but question myself. Every 15 to 20 minutes, I checked all the information and data with a feeling of anxiety. This pressure lasted for several days until the storm dissipated and fortunately, the storm did not come ashore.
What helped me overcome my fear was sea surface temperature – one of the basic principles that maintain storm strength. The sea surface temperature at that time was about 26.5 degrees Celsius, so I was confident that it would affect the storm’s strength and weaken it. However, the data on sea surface temperature I have access to may also be wrong. Therefore, forecasts also have their own uncertainties.
So forecasters can overcome their fear thanks to data and scientific working methods?
– Yeah true. Nothing can resist data, if it is a reliable data source. For example, data on sea surface temperature, with storm No. 8 of 2020, if the sea surface is at 26.5 degrees Celsius, the storm cannot maintain its intensity and will decrease in level.
The number of more than half a million followers on social networks partly shows the community’s trust in his forecasts. But besides this trust, have you ever received complaints, criticism or even doubts and criticism?
– Honestly, sometimes it happens but very rarely. I never hate or get angry at people who give comments or criticize me, on the contrary, I always thank them for helping me be more careful in my work. In this world, no one is perfect in personality or perfect in work. If you do something, there will definitely be mistakes. The important thing is that I clearly know the work I do, know that this is a job based on scientific research, not personal feelings, and is useful to everyone.
When I see that what I do is beneficial to the community, I think not only myself but everyone is willing to endure hardship and pressure. I always remember the memory of the flood in October 2020. I warned that there would be heavy rain and heavy flooding in the Central region (from Ha Tinh to Hue), calling on local people to raise their belongings and move. to safety… But my job doesn’t stop at making predictions. Every night, my phone lights up continuously because text messages come in, “Dear, my house is flooded, what should I do now”, “Please help me find rescue information”…
Those days, I stayed up all night with everyone, providing hotline information, connecting, and directing support to emergencies. In addition, I also mobilized volunteers from Hai Phong, Vung Tau, and Da Nang to take canoes along some central provinces to support people stuck in floodwaters.
My phone was like a “pot of boiling water” with calls to operate the help system from everywhere towards the Central region. Of course at that time, the authorities stepped in and played a key role; Along with that, people with the spirit of helping each other in times of need also have many initiatives and many practical and touching actions.
Climate change brings both challenges and opportunities
At the beginning of the interview, he predicted that the summer of 2024 would be very hot. Is this the problem we keep talking about as climate change?
– Exactly it is climate change. Subjectively, each person will have different feelings about the weather, but data over the years will show a quite clear trend, which is an increase in temperature compared to the general average of many years. Meanwhile, winter still has times of extreme cold, low temperatures, and even snow and ice. This is a change that does not follow the weather rules that were formed hundreds of thousands of years or millions of years ago. Global warming causes weather fluctuations to occur more frequently.
Vietnam is among the countries most affected by climate change. Firstly, the increase in global temperature causes the temperature to increase and when the temperature increases, there will be many days of extreme heat, affecting production, business activities and human health.
Second is the change in rainfall, more extreme rain, and localized rain with very heavy rainfall. For example, there was 700mm of rain within six hours in Da Nang on October 14, 2022. Such extreme rain exceeds the carrying capacity of the infrastructure.
Third, sea levels are rising at an increasingly faster rate, causing loss of construction land, living land, production land and land to maintain natural ecosystems.
Vietnam has had a strategy to respond to climate change for many years. In your opinion, what is the most important issue in the immediate period?
– In the short term, it is important to improve the resilience of each person, each family, each community, and each locality. Let’s change starting with planning so that if natural disasters occur, we are ready to respond and ready to take necessary actions.
After many years of working in natural disaster risk management, I have a very clear belief that if forecast information is correct and accurate, if there is a timely disaster response plan at the household and individual level, then will significantly reduce damage. When a storm comes, if we forecast 3-4 days in advance or 1-2 days in advance, there is still enough time to act, so I think early action at the household level as well as local authorities is very important. Looking at Japan, the country often suffers from earthquakes, but the Japanese people follow the government’s recommendations very thoroughly.
In the long term, we must look at the climate change response scenario announced by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. That scenario tells us which areas will increase in temperature, which areas will decrease in temperature, at what stage, which areas will be flooded due to sea level rise, thereby providing a plan to prevent and minimize risks when Invest in areas where natural disasters often occur.
Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges. We must look at both sides to be able to change, develop technology, and move towards an economy that reduces carbon emissions.