Hypersonic Missile: So fast you won’t see it coming

In 1942, an unimaginable event took place. The Japanese army occupied Singapore. It was a devastating defeat for the British Empire and historically marked the beginning of the collapse of European empires.

A major factor in the success of the Japanese attack was the ability of their aircraft to travel long distances at sea, which sank two of Britain’s largest battleships. It was indeed a very disastrous event for Britain. Commenting on the incident many years later, Winston Churchill expressed his feelings, saying that the news had more or less overwhelmed him.

Lacking any reliable air defense capability, the Royal Navy attempted to defend itself with tripod-mounted anti-aircraft guns. During the attack, only 88 Japanese attack aircraft were destroyed, which was a very small number to avoid the defeat of the British.

Later, during World War II, the Americans managed to do better, deploying fighter jets on aircraft carriers with the sole purpose of protecting their fleet from Japanese aircraft. Proximity fuses made their defenses even stronger. Amazingly increasing anti-aircraft intensity by a factor of five, the Americans invented a radar-controlled anti-aircraft shell that explodes at the closest point to its target.

It was this technology that was later borrowed by Britain to drop the infamous V1 bombers during the closing stages of the war in Europe. It probably became famous for its effectiveness against Japanese kamikaze pilots (suicide pilots who deliberately crashed their aircraft into a target) of the mid-1940s.

Seeing that defeat was now impossible to avoid, senior Japanese officers decided to order their pilots to deliberately crash their planes into enemy fleets. This was a completely new phenomenon for the English-speaking world, and many Allied soldiers were surprised by this change in strategy.

However, from the point of view of the Japanese superiors, this was understandable. It was well-estimated that any well-trained Japanese pilot could hardly get more than one or two strikes against the Allied Navy before being shot down, and there was no guarantee that this would happen. Whether or not any of these attacks will be able to hit their original target.

Under the circumstances and in the Japanese mind of the time, it was the only logical thing to do to suicidally ram your plane into the enemy fleet. Such a strategy did not even require the Japanese to sacrifice their more expensive, high-performance aircraft. Many operational pilots would have flown into attacks in substandard, low-cost aviation training aircraft, whereas an attack on a US aircraft carrier would have broken the back of US forces.

Unfortunately for the Japanese, American air defenses proved to be much stronger than they expected. Only one in five kamikaze pilots managed to hit their targets, while the others were already shot down by fighter defenses or fleet-mounted anti-aircraft guns. Despite this, 500 Allied ships were shot down by kamikaze pilots. My own uncle’s ship, HMS Illustrious, barely survived a series of attacks.

Not all Allied ships were so lucky. A total of 50 Allied ships were sunk, although many more caught fire and their performance was badly affected. Although no such attack was ever carried out in this instance, it should be remembered that the Japanese had another 3,000 aircraft that could be used in place of kamikaze pilots in the event of a potential attack on Japanese land or sea. were

During World War II, propeller-driven fighter jets were replaced by human-powered missile launches, which traveled 300 to 350 miles per hour toward their targets. The Allies faced several problems in trying to shoot down these missiles. One problem was the small size of the ship designed for one man. From a practical point of view, it was easier to shoot down a larger aircraft such as a four-engine Lancaster bomber or the American B17 than the smaller cross-sectional area single-engine aircraft of the Japanese Zeros.

Another problem was the relative lack of time that the anti-aircraft gunner had to first sight and then fire on the attacking aircraft. Even the most skilled anti-aircraft gunners, in particular, had to remain on high alert for weeks at a time on the deck of a ship in a sea that seemed beyond human control. The invention of radar made this task much easier, but it is a fact that the faster the enemy aircraft approached, the less time was left to shoot down a human-launched missile.

Most of the Japanese pilots dived on Allied ships and shot down their ships to speed up their movement and attack. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the US was 80% successful in killing them. If the Royal Navy had been able to capture it just two years earlier, the British could have protected their fleet from air attack and broken the back of the invading Japanese army that later occupied Singapore.

In fact, air power had changed the style of naval warfare. This trend continued in the latter half of the 20th century where a major breakthrough came with the invention of the radar-guided missile. In the late 1960s, French scientists began work on a new anti-shipping missile, later called the Exocet. Soon after that, they sold Exocet missiles to many naval powers around the world.

These three missiles were fired at the Royal Navy during the Falklands War between Great Britain and Argentina. The realization that a third world country could repel the British army with just one missile was a lesson that shook the entire British government. The Royal Navy had already purchased this weapon and their superiors should have had an idea of ​​its power.

The British were still so helpless in the face of the exosit that the advance warning system of his arrival was extremely weak. An individual ship-mounted radar can see only about 20 miles (32 km) out to sea. If an enemy aircraft or missile comes from a higher altitude, it will be visible on the radar at a greater distance and much earlier. Similarly, if a defense force has installed a radar on a high-altitude aircraft, it can be identified long before the fleet is targeted.

The advanced American AWACS protecting US Navy carrier groups can see up to 300 kilometers out to sea and alert supersonic fighters to intercept an incoming enemy before it gets close. The lack of airborne radar and the relatively small number of subsonic British jets protecting the task force allowed the Argentines to get there unopposed and launch missiles.

In such a situation, the enemy hovers relatively high in the air above the fleet and locates the possible target with the help of its radar. Remember that a ship at sea is a large slow-moving target with no hiding place. In contrast, attack aircraft, being small and fast, can change direction in an unpredictable manner with extreme maneuverability. Due to its ability to change flight level, it can come down to sea level when it sees its target, and in the meantime it can conceal itself in the curvature of the earth behind the ship in front of it.

The Exocet missile is then launched indiscriminately where it moves towards the target as directed by the accompanying dynamic radar. The attack aircraft turns back towards its base while the exosit moves towards its target at an altitude of about two meters. Within a minute or two, it detects an enemy ship with its radar and targets it with great precision.

After the end of World War II and during 35 years of development, humans discovered how to create a functional aircraft that was wingless and had a computer chip instead of a human being that could determine its potential target by itself. Do it.

One of the few defensive tactics the British could use in these circumstances was to move the ship out of the missile’s path. Because all ships are essentially vertical, a ship facing the path of an incoming missile is less likely to be hit than one facing vertically. According to the technology of the time, ‘chaff’ was also used, essentially thin strips of tin foil that were tossed on either side of the aircraft like pieces of colored paper to reflect the radar waves of the missile. Create additional goals in mind.

Sometimes this was successful and sometimes not, as the crew of HMS Glamorgan went through this harrowing experience. He was targeted by Argentina in the closing stages of the Falklands War. In their case, a ground-launched exoskelet hit the back of the ship, destroying the helicopter on board and causing a second explosion in the process. Glamorgan was the only British ship to survive the Exocet attack, although 47 Royal Navy sailors lost their lives. The British had to use so much seawater to put out the fire that Glamorgan barely survived sinking under its weight. A few weeks later the ship arrived back in port where it was warmly welcomed.

However, Exocet once again showed his ability to knock out his sophisticated opponent. It sold out quickly, and a few years later, the American battleship USS Stark was hit by an airborne Exosite in the Arabian Gulf. As was the case with Royal Navy ships of similar quality, the Stark was practically burned to the ground. This time the Americans equipped it with a radar and computer-controlled gun that they believed was capable of firing an astonishing number of rounds during the last few seconds on the missile. At this point, and for unknown reasons, the gun system was shut down.

One thing to remember is that the technology used in Exocet in the 1980s was state-of-the-art at the time, accessible only to a handful of highly developed countries. Today you can buy much better components from RS catalogs and some countries have done so. It is not clear how long a ship designed for naval warfare will survive in the future. Even as a result of countermeasures with an 80% hit rate, an attack missile such as the Exocet was capable of devastating fleets. (At the start of the Falklands War, Argentina had six Exocet air-launched missiles).

But military technology never stands still, and many countries are now developing the next generation of anti-ship missiles that can be launched from land, sea or air.

China is the recognized leader in this field. Russian President Putin has also repeatedly claimed that his armed forces now have hypersonic missiles that could destroy a US or British aircraft carrier fleet less than an hour after the start of a war.

Most experts agree that a hypersonic missile is one whose flight speed exceeds Mach five (one Mach is the speed of sound, i.e. 1225 km/h). Note that the orbital speed is close to Mach 25, although Mach numbers are not the best means of measuring missile speed because sound is an effective engineering parameter that changes with altitude. In fact, sound travels faster at sea level than at higher altitudes.

Note that the Kamikaze pilot’s speed was 200 to 400 miles (320 to 640 km) per hour. Now try to imagine a similar system without humans traveling at five times 700 miles (1126 kilometers) per hour (ie 5632 kilometers per hour). A crew targeted by a hypersonic missile attack would have almost no time to react. As in World War II, defense forces need to be aware of the possibility of attack and have their defenses ready at all times to have a realistic chance of hitting such a short-range target. Even in the last few seconds of final approach, the probability of a hit on an attacking missile is slim to none because, even if it does, its debris will continue to fall forward and enter the target ship.

The technology required to develop a hypersonic missile is by no means trivial. The British government recently announced plans to develop a rival hypersonic system, although the UK budget would be much smaller than that of our major rivals. The US, on the other hand, has flown a few hypersonic test flights in orbit, some of which it has flown in Australia with its allies. The number of such flights flown by their rival China is very high and there is no doubt that the Chinese are now leading in this field. The South Koreans are also not far behind producing their own indigenous Piper Sonic.

The announcement came as a shock to the Indo-Pacific region that both Britain and the US were to partner with Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian Navy. Such a system would dramatically increase the capabilities of the Australian Navy to counter a Chinese advance towards Australia in a future maritime war.

Although the Chinese are predictably outraged as the trend has already taken root, Vietnam has purchased several state-of-the-art diesel-electric submarines to deal with any incursions of China’s war fleet into its waters on a permanent basis. have happened Although China’s numerical superiority in terms of population is undisputed, there are few small and medium-sized regional powers in the region that could conceivably challenge its supremacy in a practical war of permanence. These include Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and fast-rising player Vietnam.

That aside, Taiwan will not be able to withstand a Chinese attack for long unless it receives substantial US support. Such aid would be subject to the difficult decision of the Americans’ willingness to put their fleet at risk.

Beijing, well aware of this, has already launched the first hypersonic missiles on its coastline, some of which have long ranges. In response, the U.S. Navy also redeployed its ships, recognizing that seaborne attacks would be more important now than in any major conflict of the past.

Hypersonic flight is not easy especially if you want to hit the target successfully, which itself is a difficult task at sea level. The air resistance faced by the missile will increase as the square of its velocity. So if we have a missile traveling at 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) at sea level, it will experience a good amount of air resistance and a rocket constantly pushing it forward to maintain its speed. A motor will be required. However, if missile designers were to increase its speed tenfold to 1,000 (1,600 km/h), it would also increase air resistance by a factor of 100. This type of strategy would cause the surface of the missile to become extremely hot due to excessive friction. Beyond Mach 5, most of the material used for aviation will already be melting.

Engineers testing future scram-powered hypersonic jet missiles are usually at very high altitudes, where the air is much weaker and it is easier to maintain high speeds. Remember that for a satellite orbiting the Earth at Mach 25 anyway there is no atmosphere that can affect it because it is already in outer space, so it does not face any obstacles.

Anti-shipping missiles, on the other hand, face intense resistance, especially in the seconds before detonation. Before the final target, it may encounter unexpected and severe gusts of wind which may affect its accuracy. More positively, the high speeds associated with this type of flight create a cushion of ionized air in front of the missile, obscuring its appearance to radar and making it more difficult for the crew to see. The missile is coming. Clever use of aerodynamics enables the hypersonic missile to change course before final approach to its target, confusing enemy navies.

Although a large fleet such as a US aircraft carrier may require multiple hits to sink, remember that it can be effectively disabled with a single hit. This will be especially the case when large fires are ignited during secondary explosions on the target. During the closing stages of World War II, the USS Princeton was destroyed by an iron bomb by a Japanese pilot who wanted to carry out his plan at all costs. The ship caught fire, 800 American sailors died and the Princeton sank.

There are basically two approaches to hypersonic weapon systems yet. Some of them are launched vertically like ballistic missiles. These projectiles go up in the air and re-enter the airspace relatively close to their targets and try to move towards their targets within the atmosphere, although air resistance slows down the missile’s speed but only the missile’s speed. Diving maintains or even increases its speed. A question needs to be asked at this stage how the attacking force can be sure that they will have a suitable target in front of them since the missile is likely to be launched thousands of miles away from the target.

Bear in mind that spy satellites the size of shoeboxes have now been developed and can be bought for several hundred thousand pounds which will tell you the exact location of naval warships anywhere in the world. Nothing, not even the vastness of the ocean, can protect a ship from hiding at sea and in front of modern spy satellites.

Another concept for the Piper sonic missile revolves around a jet engine, or possibly a so-called ram or scramjet engine, that achieves active propulsion not only during the initial rocket thrust phase, but during the final moments of flight.

Both systems can be quite lethal, especially when they hit the target. It is clear that they would have to carry devastating ammunition as it would take a good amount of kinetic energy to destroy any leading fleet. Note that HMS Sheffield Exocet did not explode at the same time as the missile struck. Unspent rocket fuel in the motor continued to flow inside the craft, causing the fire to burn continuously and the crew could not extinguish it.

During the Falklands War, the British learned many harsh lessons about modern air and naval warfare. One of the problems they faced was that no one had fought such a war for decades, and until then it was unclear how lethal the various weapons systems would prove to be. Several British anti-aircraft missiles proved woefully ineffective during this incident and manual anti-aircraft machine guns served as the last line of defence.

Such reforms would not be effective against the emerging missile capabilities of countries such as Russia or China. China is now gradually expanding its naval and air capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region and it does not seem likely to stop. It is difficult to say with certainty what the outcome of a permanent conflict in the region will be, but it is possible that, like the Falklands War, its protagonists will face several unpleasant surprises. Without naval superiority, China’s desire to retake Taiwan would be dangerous, and it is unclear how vulnerable its warship fleet would prove against powerful forces that would seek to challenge Chinese dominance.

In fact, what we are witnessing is the beginning of a new Cold War in a new hemisphere. It is hard to say how such tensions might end. Excessive defense spending is one of the few factors that could hold back China’s economic growth in the next few decades, and it is possible that Beijing will achieve all of its foreign policy goals through soft power alone.

The ability to shoot down Chinese hypersonic missiles on the ground before they are airborne will be crucial for the Americans. Artificial intelligence satellites have been developed for Earth orbit to send important information to the Americans through the red signals of conventional ballistic missiles. In theory, this would enable them to launch their own missiles designed to shoot down incoming offensive systems mid-flight.

As in the Falklands war, these missiles have never been tested in a combat situation and we are in a state of complete uncertainty as to how effective they will be in a war. However, hypersonic missiles are too small to be detected by surveillance systems’ sensors or radar, and they are designed to have a surprising ability to change themselves within Earth’s orbit, causing their trajectories to change. And targeting is very difficult.

Suppose a hypersonic missile is fired at a ship of the US or any other friendly country, how will they defend themselves? Laser-like weapons are being developed that will shoot down a guided missile at the last moment before it hits the target, although the time available for such action will be very short. In a situation where it is considered unacceptable to sacrifice the lives of men and women during war, this task will be carried out by unmanned cruise missiles that the US Navy will launch from a good distance before its fleet gets into trouble. .

Let’s not forget that the North Korean government has developed a new hypersonic weapons system that has taken Western intelligence agencies by surprise. The Hwasong-8 appears to be a prototype of exactly the kind of near-impossible anti-ship missile that the Americans have long feared. Those of us who remember the turbulent times of the Cold War in the 20th century will find this all too familiar. For the Americans, anti-missile countermeasures and reinvestment in their hypersonic technology seem inevitable.