How many billions would a NATO Ukraine cost the Greek taxpayers as well?

In the two years of war, the West (EU and US) has provided military aid to Ukraine worth at least 205 billion euros and counting. But in the scenario where a Ukraine finally fell into the arms. But a NATO Ukraine would cost a lot more money.

Shortly before Moscow launched its attack on Ukraine in early 2022, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) had produced a special report examining the military requirements and the resulting fiscal costs of NATO’s eastward expansion, i.e. Ukraine, Georgia , Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden and Finland.

As the report “Future NATO Enlargement Force Requirements and Budget Costs” states, while for example, especially for the USA, the cost of defending Sweden would amount to around 500 million dollars per year, for Ukraine things would be very different and serious with the costs reaching “god”.

It is noted that a basic condition for the investigation is considered to be a stop in peacetime and the resolution of the conflict in Donetsk and Lugansk, i.e. Eastern Ukraine. That is, in the best case scenario.

78 times the defense budget of Greece would cost to defend a NATO member Ukraine

Thus, in this dream scenario, according to the authors of the report, the cost of defense would amount to 32.6 billion dollars in one-time costs – of which 27 billion would be paid exclusively by the American taxpayer – and 13 billion dollars. per year (of which the Americans would put in almost all, i.e. 11 billion).

This money would be to maintain a total number of NATO personnel in Ukraine of approximately 18,000 troops.

In particular, a “front-heavy” defense would require at least three NATO brigades (one of which would be American), a brigade-sized US air force to provide missile defense while protecting NATO forces, a US division-sized headquarters, an air support wing, a brigade for the training of Ukrainian forces, as well as 4 support brigades (infrastructure improvements, material support for Ukrainian forces, etc.).

Especially for Ukraine, the editors see serious peculiarities, which they consider extremely exposed and far from the centers of military power of NATO, having constant conflicts with Russia.

Moreover, the open terrain makes it extremely vulnerable, as it proved after 2022.

Cost headache

In the scenario, however, where the Russians would not have time to attack, but the Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine would have to be defeated to keep the peace in the country, a NATO force of 130,000 troops would be needed, according to CSIS.

Although the size of the power would diminish over time, the power is impressive never before used.

Although theoretically feasible, such a NATO operation, according to the report, would be very demanding given NATO’s limited deployment capabilities, with the total cost ranging from $98 billion to as much as $520 billion (€480 billion)(!) , depending on the duration and whether operations against Russian-speaking Ukrainians were required.

U.S. forces and costs would be about half of NATO’s total, with somewhat higher costs in longer-duration operations (up to $360 billion) due to the need to expand the size of the U.S. military to maintain the pace of rotations.

Although Ukraine spends more than 3% of GDP on defense, exceeding the NATO target, it does not have the financial strength to pay any of the above sums. Ukraine could provide support in… kind, like real estate.

The report even notes that these costs may already seem high, however for many experts who participated in the compilation of the study they argue that even at this level the above costs would be insufficient!

The Greek taxpayers and NATO

It is noted that NATO is financed by the direct and indirect contributions of its members. NATO’s common funds consist of direct contributions to collective budgets and programmes, equivalent to only 0.3% of the Allies’ total defense expenditure (approximately €3.3 billion for 2023). These funds enable NATO to provide capabilities and run the entirety of the Organization and its military commands.

Greece contributes 1.0273% to the civil and military budget and the NATO Security Investment Program, while the US contributes almost 16%.

It should be noted that the defense budget of Greece for 2024 is estimated at approximately 6.1 billion euros.

Without a doubt, the expansion of NATO to Ukraine would mean new inconceivable costs for all the taxpayers of the NATO member states and of course Greece as well.