Analysts say that Israel’s landing in Gaza may continue for a long time as the goals set by Israel have not yet been achieved.
Since the conflict between Israel and the Islamic armed movement Hamas (which controls the Gaza Strip, Palestine) broke out in October 2023, the Israeli side has repeatedly emphasized that it pursues two goals: eliminating the Hamas in the Gaza Strip and rescued all Israeli hostages held by Hamas, according to the newspaper Financial Times.
However, three months later, many people in Israel, including Mr. Gadi Eisenkot – a member of Israel’s wartime cabinet – began to question whether the Whether Israel’s goals in Gaza can be achieved or not.
target has not yet been achieved
Mr. Michael Milshtein – a former Israeli intelligence officer and Palestinian affairs officer – said Israel is facing a dilemma.
“We have reached a crossroads: either reach full agreement [với Hamas về vấn đề con tin] and retreat, or move toward completely overthrowing Hamas rule and conquering all of Gaza. We need to choose” – Mr. Milshtein said.
Some senior Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and many senior leaders of the Israeli military seem to be leaning towards the second option. Accordingly, they emphasized that even if the intensity of attacks is reduced, Israeli forces still need to continue fighting in the Gaza Strip.
They believe that only force can make Hamas release hostages and that allowing Hamas to control Gaza is unacceptable. Mr. Netanyahu repeatedly emphasized that Israel is still fighting to achieve “complete victory.”
Financial Times quoted a senior Israeli military official as saying: “Long-term agreements with Hamas [trong quá khứ] is due to the impact of pressure. We need to use military force. Just playing games with them is not effective.”
However, those with opposing views believe that wartime detention conditions are very harsh, so the more than 130 Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza probably cannot endure for long. Israel continuing to fight for a long time could affect the fate of the hostages.
In addition, to date, the three highest-ranking leaders of Hamas, Mr. Yahya Sinwar, Mr. Mohammed Deif and Mr. Marwan Issa, have not been arrested. Therefore, whether Israel can eliminate Hamas’s management in Gaza or not remains unknown.
In the northern areas of Gaza, Hamas members reappeared after the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces.
During the worst period of late December, the Israel Defense Forces had nearly 4 armored and infantry divisions, supported by artillery, operating from Gaza City (northern Gaza) to Khan Younis City (southern Gaza). ). Israel has also mobilized hundreds of thousands of reserve troops since the conflict broke out.
However, some analysts say that so far, the military achievements of Israeli forces are still tactical rather than strategic.
Israel estimates that about 10,000 of about 30,000 Hamas members were killed. In addition, 17 of the group’s 24 battalions have been “disbanded,” meaning they are no longer able to operate as organized military units.
Mr. Muhammad Deif (left) and Mr. Yahya Sinwar – two senior leaders of Hamas. Photo: AFP
However, Mr. Milshtein argues that these numbers do not mean much. According to Financial Timesinstead of large-scale attacks, Hamas divided forces into small groups, deployed snipers, and used improvised explosive devices and rockets to attack Israeli forces.
In addition, to date, Israel has not destroyed all of Hamas’s tunnel system. Meanwhile, many sources believe that Hamas holds hostages in the intricate tunnels beneath the Gaza Strip.
How long will the conflict last?
Through landing in Gaza, Israeli forces limited Hamas’s ability to fire rockets into its territory. This allowed most of Israel, including the south of the country, to return to normalcy.
However, Hamas still retains the ability to launch rockets, especially from areas that Israeli ground troops have not yet reached.
In Gaza, Israel currently has 2 divisions. Israeli analysts and officials say the country wants to implement a “low-intensity” phase. This tactic allows Israel to both maintain operations in Gaza and be ready to deal with the risk of conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border.
The first division surrounded Khan Younis – the second largest city in Gaza and a stronghold of Hamas in the south of the strip. Fierce fighting has been going on here for weeks, both above and below ground.
In Khan Younis, Israeli forces are also trying to find hostages and track down senior Hamas figures.
The second division is responsible for “dividing” Gaza in half, keeping a corridor dividing the north and south of the strip of land, while conducting military operations in both regions. Some members of this division are establishing a “buffer zone” about 1 km wide, in the area adjacent to Gaza and Israel.
Smoke rises during an Israeli air strike on Khan Younis. Photo: AFP
Supporters of Israel’s current plan say the overall strategy is to gradually degrade Hamas’s capabilities. Current solutions closely resemble the strategy Israel deployed in the West Bank in the early 2000s.
“In 2002, it took us about 1 month to capture cities and another 3 or 4 years to ‘clean up’ the West Bank, reducing the number of terrorists and their infrastructure” – Mr. Yakov Amidror, former veteran Israel’s National Security Advisor, said.
Theo Financial Timesit seems that Israel is preparing for a long war with Hamas.
“We can continue for another year or more. And we will see who wins” – Financial Times citing an Israeli military source.