How has citizen participation been in the Mexican elections?

According to a study by the INE on citizen participation in the 2018 federal elections and the historical one that precedes it, during the years in which only federal deputy positions are elected there is less interest in participating than when presidential elections take place.

A simple and quantitative definition of citizen participation corresponds to the percentage of citizens who were registered on the Nominal List of Voters (LNE) and who came to cast their vote on election day.

Based on the available information, from 1991 to 2018 the nominal list increased 2.4 times. In general, its growth rate in each electoral process has been increasingly lower -except in the period from 2012 to 2015, when the validity of the credentials to vote with termination was maintained’12.

In the 2018 election, The LNE reached a total of 89.3 million voters, giving rise to an increase of 12.3 percent (%) compared to the last Presidential election in 2012. If considered since the 1991 federal election, the growth is 52.6 million. For this 2024 presidential election, the LNE is 98.3 million voters.

With respect to the elections in which exclusively federal deputies have been chosen, in 1991 the highest level of participation was reached, with 66% of the population casting their vote. From then on, in the following two cycles the trend decreased until reaching the lowest point in 2003, when 41.3% was recorded. Subsequently, in 2009 and 2015 there was a slight rebound to stand at 44.8% and 47.7%, respectively.

DETERMINING FACTORS

Among the factors that could have caused citizen participation to not continue with the downward trend in the years of 2009 and 2015, the INE states, the increase in the participation of women stands out, as well as the holding of local elections coinciding with same day of election day as the federal election (in 11 states in 2009 and 16 in 2015, of which the position of Governor was renewed in 6 and 9, respectively).

In the elections in which the Presidential position was chosen, 1994 recorded the highest percentage of attendance at the polls, with 77.2%, and 2006 the lowest level, with 57.7%. In the last two presidential elections (2012 and 2018), the level of participation has remained practically at the same level, at just over 63%. The data presented above show that in years when only federal deputies are elected, there is less interest in participating than when presidential elections take place.

THE ENTITIES

“It is important not to lose sight of the fact that the nominal list of voters is distributed differently by federal entity,” the study states.

In this sense, the entities of Mexico, Mexico City, Jalisco, Veracruz, Puebla and Guanajuato, concentrated 45% of the electorate at the national level and according to the figures recorded in the 2018 district counts, citizen participation in the elections 2018 federal elections showed important differences at the state level, as the highest percentage was recorded in the state of Yucatán with more than 75% attendance at the polls, followed by Tabasco and Mexico City 71%.

It stands out that five of the eight federal entities in which local gubernatorial elections were held are located at the highest levels of participation, however, there are also exceptions such as Guanajuato which, despite having elected said position, is in the group low attendance at the polls.

Analyzing the participation of federal entities according to the type of elections they held in 2018, it is observed that in the federal entities with concurrent elections that elected the position of governor, there was a higher level of voting by almost five percentage points compared to those in which no elections were held. He chose this position.

It also stands out that in the two entities that only had federal elections, a low participation is noted with 55% and the highest level of abstention in men below 50%. Another point that stands out is that female participation in entities with concurrent elections is more evident, exceeding male attendance by eight percentage points.

In the presidential elections on June 2, 2024, nine states will change governor and head of government: Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz, Yucatán and Mexico City. The electoral results of these 9 entities are of utmost importance for the presidential election, since they accumulate 40 million 240 thousand 644 potential voters, which represent more than 40% of the electoral roll.